安联：新兴市场的资本外流风险

安联：新兴市场的资本外流风险(2020.05.12) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新兴市场的资本流出总额在3月份创下880亿美元的历史新高之后，4月份回落至180亿美元。其主要原因在于，中国的资本流动态势发生逆转，由3月份的净流出约80亿美元转为4月份的净流入约80亿美元。然而，如果贸易紧张局势继续升级，那么新兴市场的资本外流规模就有可能再度增长。 　　（外脑精华·北京）新兴市场的资本流出额已在3月份见顶回落。然而，如果贸易紧张局势继续升级，那么新兴市场的资本外流规模就有可能再度增长。新兴市场的资本流出总额从3月份创纪录的880亿美元降至4月份的180亿美元。 　　中国带动新兴市场资本外流见顶 　　这是由于中国的资本流动态势发生逆转（中国4月份资本净流入约80亿美元，而中国3月份资本净流出约80亿美元）、亚洲其它国家的资本外流总额锐减，以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场资金流出额下降。与之相反，4月份拉丁美洲资本流出额仍高达130亿美元（3月份资本流出额为160亿美元），主要是由于遭受全球油价在4月份进一步下跌重创的墨西哥和哥伦比亚的资本流出额激增。更普遍的趋势是，在新冠疫情冲击的潜在规模依然充满不确定性引发资本在3月份全面逃离新兴市场后，新兴市场的资本市场呈极具韧性和脆弱性上升两种分化发展态势。新兴市场货币汇率的走势印证了这一点。在3月份大幅贬值后，多数新兴市场货币兑美元汇率在4月份企稳甚至回升，但少数新兴市场货币汇率继续下跌，尤其是巴西（汇率下跌7%）、墨西哥（汇率下跌4%）、南非（汇率下跌6%）和土耳其（汇率下跌6%）。展望未来，中美贸易重现紧张格局可能将导致新兴市场资本外流规模再度增长，诚如2019年8月的情况（新兴市场资本外流190亿美元）。不过，总体而言，我们预计在明年不会出现类似3月份的资金外流状况。 　　新兴市场的政策抉择 　　经济下滑的新兴市场可能会优先考虑确保经济增长，这可能导致新冠病毒确诊患者死亡人数高企。在许多新兴市场，全面封锁的经济成本极高。首先，一些新兴市场国家存在高度依赖商品和服务出口（尤其是依赖商品和旅游服务的出口）、非正式就业人口占比高以及就业保障体系脆弱等严重的结构性问题。其次，有些新兴市场国家在陷入这场健康危机时，宏观经济严重失衡，例如背负巨额财政赤字及经常帐赤字、高度依赖外部融资、外汇储备不足以及汇率偏高。属于这些类别的新兴市场可能会选择过早解除限制措施，或者全面解除限制来抑制经济放缓。限制财政刺激的目标或需求也有可能发挥作用。南非、印度、巴西、印尼和土耳其是对限制措施具有高度经济脆弱性的大型新兴市场。因而，在健康指标数据同样欠佳情况下，巴西和土耳其迄今一直未实施严格的关停措施显得不足为奇。不过，这种策略蕴含卫生危机恶化和持续时间延长最终将重创经济的风险。例如，土耳其当局强调其希望挽救2020年的旅游旺季，但如果新冠病毒确诊患者的死亡人数继续上升，这一希望将非常渺茫。 　　总体而言，上述分析与我们之前的结论一致，即阿根廷、土耳其、南非、墨西哥、智利、巴基斯坦、印尼、马来西亚和罗马尼亚这些大型新兴市场以及一些前沿市场面临的信用评级下调以及主权债券和企业债券违约的风险最高。 　　实体经济继续下滑 　　我们仍预计，今年全球新兴市场的实际GDP将同比下降0.7%。虽然新兴市场的资本外流在3月份已见顶，但实体经济将继续下滑。新近发布的新兴市场制造采购经理人指数数据证实，4月份新兴市场经济活动锐减，而且未来几个月的经济前景黯淡。我们编制的新兴市场制造业综合采购经理人指数从3月份的49.6点跌至4月份的42.3点。不含已经步入复苏的中国（4月份制造业采购经理人指数为50.8点）的4月份安联新兴市场制造业采购经理人指数为50.8）从47.2点跌至34点。这印证了我们关于全球新兴市场经济在今年2季度将急剧下滑，并将在今年下半年开始逐步复苏的基本预测。我们预计今年新兴市场实际GDP将同比下降0.7%，而2021年新兴市场实际GDP将大幅增长6.4%。 　　英文原文： Capital outflows bottomed out but beware of the weak spots 　　Capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) bottomed out in March but could increase again should renewed trade tensions continue. Total portfolio outflows from EMs moderated to an estimated -USD18bn in April from the record outflow of -USD88bn in March. 　　This reflects a turnaround in China (about +USD8bn inflows in April after outflows of the same magnitude in March) and a significant deceleration in other Asian countries, as well as lower outflows from Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In contrast, portfolio outflows from Latin America remained substantial at -USD13bn in April (-USD16bn in March), largely due to much increased outflows from Mexico and Colombia, which were hit hard by the further slide in global oil prices last month. More generally, financial markets have begun to discriminate between rather resilient and more vulnerable EMs after withdrawing capital across the board in March when the potential size of the Covid-19 shock was still very unclear. The performance of EM currencies supports this view. After sharp depreciations in March, most currencies stabilized or even rebounded vs. the USD in April but a few continued to weaken, notably those of Brazil (-7%), Mexico (-4%), South Africa (-6%) and Turkey (-6%). Looking ahead, the renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have contributed to a softer start to the week in equity markets, could again lead to increased capital outflows, as occurred in August 2019 (-USD19bn) for example. Overall, however, we do not expect a month with similar outflows as seen in March over the next year. 　　Weaker Emerging Markets may prioritize keeping the economy going, risking a high Covid-19 death toll. The economic cost of a full-blown lockdown is very high in many EMs. First, there are those with substantial structural weaknesses, such as a high dependence on exports of goods and services – and in this event in particular on exports of commodities and tourism services – a high share of informal employment and/or weak employment protection. Second, there are EMs that went into the health crisis with significant macroeconomic imbalances, such as large fiscal and/or current account deficits, a high dependence on external financing, low foreign exchange reserves and/or overvalued currencies. EMs that fall into these categories may opt to de-confine too early or to forgo confinement altogether in order to mitigate the slowdown of their economies. The aim or need to limit fiscal stimulus may also play a role. South Africa, India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey are large EMs with a high economic vulnerability to confinement. Hence, it is no surprise that both Brazil and Turkey, for example, have not imposed strict shutdowns (yet), even though their health indicators are also weak. However, such a strategy carries the risk of a much more severe and lengthy sanitary crisis later on, which would eventually also hit the economy hard. For example, Turkish authorities emphasize that they want to rescue the tourism season of 2020 but this will be very unlikely if the death toll due to Covid-19 continues to rise. 　　Overall, the above analysis is consistent with our earlier conclusion that the following large EMs – Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, Chile, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Romania – as well as a number of Frontier Markets are most at risk of rating downgrades and subsequent sovereign and corporate defaults. 　　We continue to forecast real GDP in Emerging Markets as a whole to contract by -0.7% in 2020. 　　Although capital outflows from EMs bottomed out in March, the real economies will continue to slide for now. Manufacturing PMIs of EMs released this week confirm a sharp deceleration of economic activity in April and a bleak outlook for the coming months. Our proprietary Composite EM Manufacturing PMI worsened to 42.3 points in April (from 49.6 in March). Excluding China, which is already in recovery (PMI at 50.8 in April), the composite index dropped to 34.0 (from 47.2). This supports our baseline projection of a steep economic contraction in the EMs as a whole in the second quarter, followed by a gradual recovery starting in the second half of 2020. We forecast EM real GDP to contract by -0.7% in 2020, followed by a strong recovery to +6.4% in 2021. 来源：安联，作者：Manfred Stamer \t