德意志银行：疫情冲击德国机械工程行业

德意志银行：疫情冲击德国机械工程行业(2020.05.12) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：至少从2019年开始，德国机械工程企业就已受到行业重组的影响。而今，新冠疫情令已然陷入困境的这一行业雪上加霜，其中的近三十个子行业几乎全部遭受重创。新冠疫情可能导致今年该行业产出至少下降25%。德意志银行预计，凭借雄厚的技术实力，德国机械工程行业的产出将在中期内回升至原有水平。 　　（外脑精华·北京）雪上加霜 　　新冠疫情令已然陷入困境的德国机械工程行业雪上加霜。至少从2019年开始，德国机械工程企业就已受到行业重组的影响，尤其是德国汽车企业转型生产电动汽车的影响。最重要的是，持续的贸易冲突可能导致从中国进口配件的中断，进而导致成本费用高企。新冠疫情可能将导致今年德国机械工程行业的产出至少下降25%。 　　新冠病毒危机不仅令人想起德国机械工程行业产出锐减26%的2009年。预计未来几周的订单数据和景气度指标将表明情况的恶化程度。最新的德国IFO商业景气指数显示，预计至少到本季度末，冠状疫情将导致该行业景气度进一步下滑。德国IFO商业预期指数中的机械工程行业商业预期指数从2月的-12点跌至3月的-44点。德国机械设备制造业联合会所做的一项调查显示，运营已经受到负面影响的德国机械工程企业的占比从3月中旬的60%升至3月底的84%。德国机械设备制造业联合会表示，3/4的德国机械工程企业已经因而调整了产能。为此，德国机械工程企业他将现行休假制度、冻结招聘以及将短时工作制作为首要应对策略。而且目前甚至有12%的德国机械工程企业正在考虑进行裁员。在本轮新冠病毒危机中，北威州签署的试点协议是一种明智对策。北威州签署的新协议规定冻结基于经营原因的加薪和裁员，并规定增加短时工作的津贴。 　　全面冲击 　　德国机械工程行业的近30个子行业几乎全部遭受了新冠疫情的冲击。尤其是具有周期性的德国机床行业的表现将不及平均水平（这意味着该行业产出至少将下降25%）。德国机床行业还受到了汽车业重组的影响，而且难以承受全球经济低迷的冲击。 　　德国塑料和橡胶机械行业也面临产出进一步下滑的风险。汽车业的不确定性也在冲击德国塑料和橡胶机械行业，而且关于未来将采用何种包装（哪类包装在未来将继续得到认可）的问题的依然悬而未决。德国铸造机械和测量设备行业的产出可能同样将低于平均水平。 　　在机械工程行业中，极少数子行业的表现（虽然不会显著优于其他行业）将优于行业平均水平。受益于建筑业“仍在运营”的德国配件制造业是其中之一德国。驱动技术行业也会受到更小程度的冲击。在几个月前，对中国可能被剔除供应商名单的担忧使得德国驱动技术行业的订单激增，而且这些订单目前尚未完成。 　　复苏可期 　　如果处在德国经济状况在2020年下半年出现好转，并且在2021年和2022年保持复苏态势的一种良好局面下，德国机械工程行业的前景将再度显著改善。可以推动德国机械工程行业前景改善的因素包括独特产品的广泛供应和高质标准的应用。在德国机械工程行业中的近30个子行业中，一半的子行业处于世界领先地位。近70%的德国机器设备属于一次性生产或小批量生产的产品。在国际上，需求青睐这类机器产品。如果全球化受阻导致价值链更趋本土化，德国机械工程企业在未来几年中将从中受益。 　　此外，德国机械工程行业应会继续在能源和气候相关项目方面有所建树。全球电厂库存管理现代化是未来的一个重要课题。而且在德国，近期的发展态势表明，局势显然在朝这一方向发展。机械工程尤其有助于降低替代能源的成本。机械工程行业的创新也需要提升生产和消费品行业的能源效率。 　　德国机械工程行业今年的产出降幅也能需要数年时间来弥补。但是，我们仍然乐观认为，雄厚的工程技术实力将促使德国机械工程行业的产出在中期将以平均约2%的年增速增至原有水平。 　　英文原文： Mechanical engineering sector feels the effects of the coronavirus 　　The coronavirus pandemic has struck the German mechanical engineering sector at an already difficult time. Since 2019 at the latest, mechanical engineering firms have been feeling the effects of a realignment in the industry, particularly as German automobile manufacturers shift towards electric mobility. On top of that, there was the possibility of unusual expenses due to the potential discontinuation of deliveries from China amid ongoing trade conflicts. Production may decline by 25% or more in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus. 　　The coronavirus crisis is reminiscent of 2009, when mechanical engineering firms saw production collapse by 26%. The order status and mood indicators expected over the next few weeks will show how bad the situation already is. And further gloom as a result of the coronavirus should be expected through to the end of the current quarter at least, as the results of the most recent surveys conducted by the ifo Institute show. Business expectations in the mechanical engineering sector fell to minus 44 points in March, from minus 12 points in February. And according to a VDMA survey, the percentage of mechanical engineering firms whose operations are adversely affected rose from 60% in mid-March to 84% at the end of March. Three-quarters of mechanical engineering companies have already adjusted capacity as a result, the VDMA says. To do this, they have relied first and foremost on existing balances of time off, hiring freezes, and short-time work as a tool. And even job cuts are on the table now for 12% of companies. Amid the current coronavirus crisis, the pilot agreement in North Rhine-Westphalia is a sensible response. The new agreement freezes pay increases and dismissals for operational reasons and provides for an increase in the short-time working allowance. 　　The coronavirus situation affects practically all of the approximately 30 segments in the mechanical engineering sector. The machine tool segment, which is especially cyclical, may perform even worse than the average (meaning at least -25%). This area is also affected by the realignment of the automotive industry and its great vulnerability to the struggling global economy. 　　Manufacturers of precision tools that supply machinery for sheet metal work in the automotive industry will likely continue to perform below average as well. The robotics and automation segments are also feeling the added effects of hesitant investment in the vehicle industry at present. 　　Steeper drops in production also threaten producers of plastic and rubber machinery. Uncertainties in the automotive industry also weigh on this segment, along with as yet unanswered questions surrounding the future of packaging, meaning which types of packaging will still be tolerated in the future (PET, for example?). Manufacturers of foundry machinery and measuring equipment will probably see below-average performance as well. 　　There are very few segments of the industry that could weather the current crisis not particularly well, but still better than the average for mechanical engineering. Manufacturers of fittings are among them, benefitting from the fact that the construction industry is “still up and running.” Drive technology could also experience less of an impact. A few months ago, when it seemed possible that China would be eliminated as a supplier, fear sparked a high volume of orders in Germany in this segment, and those orders are still being processed. 　　In a positive scenario involving an economic upturn in the second half of 2020 that continues into 2021 and 2022, the prospects for the mechanical engineering sector will be much more favourable again. Factors that could contribute here include the uniquely wide range of products offered and the very high quality standards that apply. Germany is the world leader in half of the approximately 30 segments in this industry. About 70% of German machines are made in one-off production or small series. Internationally, the trend in demand is towards these machines. If value chains shift more towards local suppliers in the future due to pushback against globalisation, that should benefit German mechanical engineering firms in the years to come. 　　Beyond that, the German mechanical engineering sector should continue to score points on topics related to energy and the climate. The modernisation of the global power plant stock is an important subject for the future. And in Germany, recent developments show that things are clearly moving in this direction. Mechanical engineering in particular helps to reduce the costs of alternative energy sources. Innovation in mechanical engineering is also needed to boost energy efficiency in production and in the consumer goods sector. 　　It will probably take several years to recover from the decrease in production in 2020. Still, we are optimistic that thanks to German engineering skill, the German mechanical engineering sector will return to average production growth of around 2% per year in the medium term. 来源：德意志银行，作者：Josef Auer \t