安联：脱欧不确定性威胁英国经济复苏前景

安联：脱欧不确定性威胁英国经济复苏前景(2020.05.19) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：受新冠疫情影响，英国1季度GDP环比下降2%。鉴于封城期已经延长至6月1日，以及英国经济活动恢复进程将比欧洲其他国家更迟缓，安联预计英国2季度GDP将环比下降20%以上。新冠疫情将导致英国脱欧过渡期延长，由此引发的脱欧不确定性将拖累英国经济在今年下半年的复苏。预计今年全年英国GDP将下降8.2%。 　　（外脑精华·北京）经济活动全面下滑 　　英国1季度GDP环比下降2%，符合预期。这一数据表明，封城措施每周将使GDP损失约6%。即使是在于3月23日实施应对新冠疫情的封城之前，英国经济已经陷入一种颓势，在2019年4季度期间停滞不前。而且在今年年初，先行指标显示，由于英国脱欧不确定性犹存，英国投资活动和贸易活动低于正常水平。 　　目前，1季度GDP的初步估计数据显示，英国经济活动全面下滑。1季度英国家庭消费支出环比下降1.7%，而且由于住房投资和整个投资双双下降（企业投资持稳），1季度英国投资总额环比下降1%。1季度英国政府消费支出环比下降2.6%，主要是由于教育支出下降，而供应链中断造成了英国库存的下降。1季度英国出口额和进口额分别环比下降10.8%和5.3%。3月份英国产出下降5.8%，其中服务业（产出下降6.2%）和建筑业（产出下降5.8%）产出降幅最大。 　　2季度GDP将下跌20%以上 　　鉴于封城期已经延长至6月1日，以及英国经济活动恢复进程将比欧洲其他国家更为缓慢，我们预计英国2季度GDP将环比下降20%以上。英国是应对新冠卫生危机时间最长（10周）、封城最严的国家之一。英国经济活动降幅超过了欧元区平均降幅：电力数据显示，3月中旬以来，英国的能源产出和消费量双双下降21%，而法国和德国的降幅分别为17%和11%。虽然英国4月份综合采购经理人指数基本持平于欧元区综合采购经理人指数（13.8，高于欧元区的13.6），但英国4月份建筑业采购经理人指数从3月份的39.3降至8.2，远低于欧元区的13.6。 　　虽然封城并没有禁止建筑企业继续施工，但英国建筑企业采取了一种谨慎做法，关停许多工地的施工。英国建筑企业仍对前景持悲观态度，预期未来12个月的需求将降至2008年10月以来的最低水平。在未来几个月中，原材料和安全产品的短缺可能将继续制约英国建筑业的复苏。英国的“解除限制”战略看似比其它国家的战略更为谨慎，预计英国酒店业在7月1日之后才会恢复营业，而且对航空入境游客实施隔离14天的措施。因而，我们预计英国服务业在2021年中期不会恢复至危机前的水平，而且如果英国脱欧不确定性依然受限，英国制造业和建筑业至少要到今年年底才能恢复至危机前的水平。 　　移动数据和几项调查指标数据显示，英国消费者的谨慎度提高。我们预计今年英国消费者支出将下降15%。4月末的谷歌地图移动数据显示，全球零售场所和工作场所的人流量比基准值低50%，而在封城期间比基准值低出80%。不过，在英国，这一数据在4月末比基准值低70%，而最低时比基准值低促86%。英国的几项消费指标正在逐步回升至正常水平。虽然英国的未来12个月失业担忧指数基本于欧元区指数一致，甚至低于欧元区支出，但英国消费者未来12个月大宗购买意愿指数降幅超过了欧元区整体水平。与现行消费者信心指数相应的是，英国新车销量同比下降近20%。 　　由于英国的《工作保留计划》将在6月末至10月末期间减少对失业的支持，我们认为英国今年3季度失业率可能会超过10%（而且今年的平均失业率将从去年的3.8%升至8.5%）。截至目前，已经启动《工作保留计划》的前五大行业是餐饮住宿行业、艺术及休闲业、建筑业、制造业和行政扶持行业。因而，如果没有提振消费者信心的措施出台，英国预防性储蓄增长态势将持续至今年年底。在2019年创下历史新低（6%）后，我们预计今年3季度英国储蓄率将达到可支配收入总额的17%（在封城期创下31%的峰值后），并在今年年底达到危机前水平的2倍水平，因为英国失业率将继续上升。因而，我们预计今年消费支出将下降15%。 　　脱欧不确定性增大 　　英国脱欧的不确定性即将上升，而且我们继续认为过渡期可能至少将延长至2021年中期。我们认为，英国和欧盟在今年年底“无法达成贸易协议”的可能性将从去年的30%降至20%。新冠危机已经导致英国脱欧谈判推迟。我们已对英国和欧盟能否在6月18日至19日的欧洲峰会之前就商品和服务达成一项“全新的全面协议”（其中包括在北爱尔兰进行双重海关检查的一项技术性协议）产生质疑。因而,我们认为需要延长过渡期，至少需要延长至2021年中期，因为愈发凸显的国内证据表明，英国私营部门正在敦促英国政府采取措施来避免英国经济在后新冠疫情时期的脆弱复苏遭受显著新的自由贸易协定带来的关税和监管障碍的双重冲击。不过，延长过渡期可能会需要在当前的最后期限6月末之后提出，这将导致今夏期间与脱欧相关的不确定性上升。我们认为我们对英国今年和明年经济的现行预期（今年英国经济下滑8.2%和明年英国经济增长8.7%）所面临的下行风险在日益上升。 　　英文原文： Brexit uncertainty could jeopardize the recovery in H2 　　UK Q1 GDP fell by -2% q/q, in line with expectations. This release confirms that each week of lockdown cuts output by around -6%. Even before implementing a Covid-19 lockdown on 23 March, the UK economy was already on a weak footing, posting no growth in Q4 2019. And at the start of the year, advanced indicators pointed to below normal investment activities and trade as Brexit uncertainty was still looming. 　　Now, the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP shows widespread declines in economic activity. Household consumption fell by -1.7% q/q and total investment was down by -1.0% q/q due to declining investments in housing, as well as lower government investment (business investment was flat). Government consumption contracted by -2.6% q/q mainly due to falls in education spending, while disruption within supply chains pushed inventories lower. Exports fell by -10.8% q/q while imports fell by -5.3% q/q. In March, output decreased by -5.8% with the strongest declines seen in services (-6.2%) and construction (-5.8%). 　　We expect Q2 GDP to fall by more than -20% q/q as the lockdown has been extended until 01 June and the activity resumption will prove slower than elsewhere in Europe. The UK is among the countries with the longest (10 weeks) and hardest lockdowns to fight the Covid-19 sanitary crisis. Activity in the UK has fallen further than the Eurozone average: Electricity data show a -21% drop on average in both energy production and consumption since mid-March, compared to -17% in France and -11% in Germany. While the final reading of the Composite PMI for April was relatively in line with the Eurozone one (13.8, compared to 13.6), the UK’s Construction PMI fell to 8.2, from 39.3 in March, much below the Eurozone level of 13.6. Although the lockdown did not forbid construction builders from continuing activity, they have taken a cautious approach and closed many sites. Builders remain pessimistic about the outlook: expectations for demand over the next 12 months matched the lowest level previously recorded in October 2008. Shortages of raw materials and safety products are likely to remain a constraint on the recovery over the coming months. The UK’s deconfinement strategy looks more cautious than elsewhere, with hospitality expected to resume activity only post 01 July and a 14-day quarantine imposed to travelers coming by air. Hence, we don’t expect the services sector to return to pre-crisis levels before mid-2021, while manufacturing and construction would at best recover to those levels at year-end should Brexit uncertainty remain contained. 　　Mobility data and several surveys show a higher cautiousness for the UK consumer. We expect consumer spending to drop by -15% in 2020. Google Maps mobility data at the end of April suggest that visits for retail and workplace purposes were c.-50% below baseline values, compared with c.-80% during the midst of the lockdowns. However, in the UK, the figure was at -70% at end of April, compared to -86% at the trough. Several consumer surveys suggest a very progressive return to normal. While fears of unemployment in the next 12 months are similar, even if lower, in the UK compared to the Eurozone, consumers’ intentions for major purchases in the next 12 months have dropped more than in the Eurozone as a whole. Current consumer confidence is consistent with close to a 20% shortfall in new car sales relative to last year. As the Job Retention Scheme would reduce its support from end of June to end of October, we think the unemployment rate is likely to increase beyond 10% in Q3 (and 8.5% on average in 2020, from 3.8% in 2019). Until now the top five sectors to have used the scheme are food and accommodation, art and leisure, construction, manufacturing and administrative support. Hence, precautionary savings would continue until year-end in the absence of measures boosting consumer confidence. After reaching a record low level in 2019 (6%), we expect the saving rate to reach 17% of the gross disposable income in Q3 (after a peak of 31% during lockdown) and to twice higher compared to the pre-crisis level at year-end as unemployment will continue to increase. Hence, we expect consumer spending to drop by -15% in 2020. 　　Heightened Brexit uncertainty is just around the corner and we continue to think an extension of the transition period until at least mid-2021 is likely. In our view, the risk of “no trade deal” at end-2020 stands at 20% probability, against 30% back in 2019. The Covid-19 crisis has delayed the Brexit negotiations. We were already skeptical of both parties’ ability to finalize a “new comprehensive agreement” on both goods and services by the European Summit on 18-19 June, which includes a technical set-up for the double custom checks in Northern Ireland. Hence, we think that a longer transition would be needed, at least until mid-2021, as there is growing domestic evidence that the private sector in the UK is pushing for the government to avoid the double whammy of tariffs and regulatory hurdles from new FTAs amidst the fragile recovery post Covid-19. However, the extension could be requested post the end of June, the current deadline, which will increase the Brexit-related uncertainty during summer. We see increasing downside risks to our -8.2% forecast for 2020 and +8.7% for 2021. 来源：安联，作者：Ana Boata \t