巴黎银行：德国以大规模经济刺激应对新冠危机

巴黎银行：德国以大规模经济刺激应对新冠危机(2020.05.19) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：3月份，全面封城措施令德国经济几乎完全陷入停滞。这些措施旨在阻止疫情迅速扩散，避免医疗系统超载，但也产生了严重经济影响。为应对封城的经济后果，德国政府推出大规模经济刺激计划，以增加卫生部门支出、保护就业以及支持企业。尽管如此，本次经济下滑的产出损失很可能会远超过以往的衰退。在封城3个月的最坏情况下，德国GDP增速可能会损失20个百分点，可能会有600万人被迫加入短期就业计划。 　　（外脑精华·北京）大规模封城令德国经济陷入停滞。为应对封城的经济后果，德国政府推出大规模经济刺激计划，以增加卫生部门支出、保护就业以及支持企业。尽管如此，本次经济下滑的产出损失很可能会远超过以往的衰退。在封城3个月的最坏情况下，德国GDP增速可能会损失20个百分点，可能会有600万人被迫加入短期就业计划。 　　经济脱轨 　　3月份，全面封城措施令德国经济几乎完全陷入停滞。这些措施旨在阻止疫情迅速扩散，避免医疗系统超载。然而，这将产生巨大的经济影响。 　　一些行业已经完全关闭，如教育、非必需的零售店、酒店、餐馆和旅游业。在一些服务部门，由于远程办公，可以保持活动，但速度要慢得多。在制造业，由于供应链的断裂，生产经常不得不停止。汽车行业停产不仅是因为供应中断或人员短缺，还因为需求崩溃。 　　3月份的调查显示，商业环境急剧恶化。可靠的商业信心指标IFO气候指数暴跌10点，创下德国统一以来的最大跌幅。在短时间延迟后提供的其他指标也显示需求急剧下降。3月16日至22日这一周，法兰克福机场的旅客人数比去年同期下降了近75%，而货运量则下降了约五分之一。德国经济受到冲击。 　　大力应对 　　今年3月，德国政府启动了一项具有历史意义的一揽子援助计划。主要目的是保护工作和收入。其中包括有三根支柱。第一个支柱是致力于保护卫生保健部门。35亿欧元用于紧急措施，如购买防护服和口罩、研制疫苗。此外，还提供550亿欧元用于抗击疫情。 　　第二个支柱是采取措施，通过便利获得短期工作计划来保护就业，根据该计划，联邦就业局（FEA）支付被削减工时的工人所失去工资的60%～67%。这项计划在2008～2009年的经济大衰退期间非常成功地保护了就业机会。在此期间，FEA支出约100亿欧元，主要用于制造业工人。这一次，该计划将在零售、酒店和餐馆等其他行业得到广泛应用。此外，该计划的资格要求也有所放宽。这项措施的成本很难预测，因为它们取决于危机的深度和持续时间。 　　该一揽子计划的第三个也是迄今为止最大的支柱是一个广泛的支持企业的援助计划，部分是通过扩大现有计划或支持小企业、自由职业者和个体经营者的新计划。税务机关将准予延期纳税。此外，在联邦和州两级都有资金购买陷入困境的公司的股权。 　　预算费用是相当大的。联邦政府将发放总额约为1560亿欧元的新贷款。这不包括可能的贷款担保或参股股权。德国支持欧洲一级的努力。德国欢迎建立250亿欧元新冠疫情应对投资计划。它还为来自其他欧盟国家的新冠疫情受害者开设了医院。然而，政府仍然反对将欧洲债务集中起来，这将有助于向受新冠疫情影响最严重的南欧国家提供贷款。 　　前景展望 　　新冠疫情的影响比联邦共和国历史上经历的任何事情都严重得多。产出损失将取决于封闭期的持续时间、在此期间活动的减少以及随后的恢复期。为了对可能的规模有所了解，IFO研究所根据3月份调查中的业务预期，结合不同的封闭时间和恢复期，给出了三种情景：低、高和中情景。这些计算假设，在最温和的情况下，封闭期将持续一个月，在最严重的情况下，封闭期将持续三个月。在所有情况下，2021年的经济活动可能会恢复到危机前的水平。 　　在最温和的情况下，GDP年增长率可能下降5%左右。在最严重的情况下，封闭月份的GDP损失为48.7%，年增长率损失为6.1%。如果封闭期为2个月，恢复期为3个月，那么在低情景和高情景下，GDP年增长率分别下降12%和14%。在最坏的情况下，在三个月的封闭期之后，再经过四个月的恢复期，损失可能达到国内生产总值的20%左右。 　　在所有情况下，2008～2009年金融危机期间，短期工的总人数都大大超过了150万兼职工。如果锁定一个月，根据IFO的计算，短期工预计将有210万至390万人。如果封城持续2、3个月，这一数字应分别增至340万至550万和420万至660万。 　　国家预算可能受到严重影响。从稳定的角度来看，这是一个理想的效果。一项关于2008～2009年经济危机中欧盟和美国税收和转移系统影响的研究发现，自动稳定器吸收了德国48%的收入冲击，而欧盟和美国分别为38%和32%。IFO情景表明，根据封城期的长短和活动的严重程度，国家预算的负担可能在500亿欧元或GDP的1.4%到2000亿欧元或GDP的5.7%之间。这些预算费用不包括国家担保贷款的损失和对欧洲紧急一揽子计划的捐助。德国政府账户很可能在相当长的一段时间内保持赤字。 　　英文原文： Historic stimulus for fighting corona crisis 　　The German economy has come to a standstill because of the almost complete lockdown. To fight the economic consequences, the government launched a massive stimulus plan to increase spending in the health sector, protect jobs and support businesses. Nevertheless, production losses may reach dimensions that are well beyond growth falls in previous recessions. In the worst scenario of a three-month lockdown, GDP growth could lose around 20 percentage points and 6 million people may have to join the short-time work scheme. 　　Coronavirus derails economy 　　In March, the German economy came virtually to a halt because of an almost complete lockdown. The measures are meant in the first place to stem the rapid expansion of the coronavirus and avoid overloading the health system. However, they will have a massive economic impact. 　　Some sectors have completely shut down such as education, non-essential retail outlets, hotels, restaurants and the tourism industry. In some services sector, activity could be maintained, albeit at a much slower pace, thanks to teleworking. In the manufacturing sector, production had often to be halted because the breaking down of supply chains. Production in the car industry was halted not only because of supply disruptions or staff shortages, but also because of collapsing demand. 　　The March surveys indicate a sharp deterioration of the business climate. The Ifo climate index, a reliable business sentiment indicator, collapsed by 10 points the steepest fall ever recorded since German reunification. Other indicators available within a particular short time delay also show a sharp decline in demand. At Frankfurt Airport, in the week of 16-22 March, passenger numbers slumped by almost 75% from a year earlier, whereas cargo volume dropped by about one fifth. The German economy is in shock. 　　Quick and strong action to protect the economy 　　In March, the German government launched an aid package of historic proportions. The main aim is to protect jobs and income. The package has three pillars. The first pillar is dedicated to protect the health care sector. EUR 3.5 billion are made available for emergency measures, such as buying protective suits and masks, working on a vaccine. Additionally, EUR 55 bn are made available to fight the pandemic. 　　The second pillar consists of measures to protect jobs by facilitating access to short-time working scheme (Kurzarbeit), under which the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) pays 60-67% of the forgone wages of workers whose hours are being cut. The scheme was very successful in protecting jobs during the great recession in 2008-09. During that period, the FEA disbursed about EUR 10 billion, mainly to workers in the manufacturing sector. This time the scheme will be much widely used in other sectors, such as retail, hotels and restaurants. In addition, eligibility requirements to the scheme have been loosened. The costs of the measure are hard to predict as they depend on the depth and duration of the crisis (see below). 　　The third and by far the largest pillar of the package is an extensive assistance programme to support businesses, partly through the expansion of existent schemes – liquidity assistance programmes and loan guarantees mainly through the German state development bank KfW – or a new programme to support small businesses, freelancers and the self-employed. Tax authorities will grant tax payments deferrals. Moreover, funds are available at the federal and the state (Land) level to buy equity stakes in struggling companies. 　　The budgetary costs are considerable. The Federation will take out new loans totaling roughly EUR 156 bn (4.5% of GDP). This does not include possible calls on the loan guarantees or participations in equity. 　　Germany supports the efforts on the European level. It welcomes the plan to establish a EUR 25 bn Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative. It also has opened its hospitals for corona victims from other EU countries. However, the government remains opposed to the pooling of European debt, which would have helped lending to the southern European countries that are most hit by the coronavirus. 　　Outlook depends on length and depth of the crisis 　　The effect of the corona crisis is much more severe than anything that the Federal Republic has experienced in its history. The output losses will depend on the duration of the lockdown period, the fall in activity during that time, and the subsequent recovery period. To gain some insight in the possible magnitude, the Ifo institute has developed three scenarios – low, high, and a medium scenario based on business expectations in the March Ifo survey – combined with different lockdown durations and recovery periods. These calculations assume that the lockdown period will last between one month in the mildest scenario to three months in the most severe one. In all scenarios, activity could return in 2021 to the same as level as before the crisis. 　　In the mildest scenario - 40% GDP loss in the lockdown month and one month post-lockdown recovery period – the annual GDP growth rate could decline by around 5%. In the most severe scenario, the GDP loss in the lockdown month amounts to 48.7% and the loss in the annual growth rate could be 6.1%. If the lockdown period lasts for 2 months and the recovery period 3 months, the decline in the annual GDP growth rate amount to 12% and 14% in the low and high scenario, respectively. In the worst case scenario, a three-month lockdown followed by a four-month recovery period, the losses could amount to around 20% of GDP. 　　In all scenarios, the total number of short-time workers rises to levels that exceed the 1.5 million part-time workers during the 2008- 09 financial crisis significantly. In the case of a one-month lockdown, 2.1 million to 3.9 million can be expected according to the Ifo calculations. If the lockdown continues for two or three months, the number should increase to 3.4 to 5.5 million and 4.2 million to 6.6 million, respectively. 　　The state budget is likely to be heavily impacted. From a stabilisation point of view, this is a desirable effect. A study on the impact of the tax and transfer systems in the European Union and the US in the 2008-09 economic crisis found that the automatic stabilisers absorb 48% of an income shock in Germany, compared with 38% in the EU and 32% in the US. The Ifo scenarios show that, depending on the length of the lockdown period and the severity of the activity fall, the burden on the state budget could be between EUR 50 bn or 1.4% of GDP (low scenario, 1 month lockdown) to EUR 200 bn or 5.7% of GDP (high scenario, 3 month lockdown). 　　These budgetary costs do not include losses on state-guaranteed loans and the contribution to the European emergency package. It is likely that the German government accounts remain in deficit for a considerable period. 来源：巴黎银行，作者：Raymond Van der Putten \t