国际能源署：5月号石油市场月报

国际能源署：5月号石油市场月报(2020.05.19) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：4月份，疫情导致的需求疲软叠加中东原油出口创新高，导致油价大跌，石油期货价格首现负值。5月份，市场力量在油市供给侧显示威力。由于欧佩克+减产协定生效，以及其他产油国减产，预计5月份石油供应量大跌1200万桶/日，至8800万桶/日，创9年新低。到年底，对油市同比减产贡献最大的将是美国，其年底产量将同比下跌280万桶/日。能源署预计，石油需求2季度同比下跌1990万桶/日，全年同比下降860万桶/日。油市主要不确定性在于，放松封城措施是否会导致疫情二次爆发，以及减产协定主要参与国是否会严格履行承诺。这些重要问题的答案将对油市产生重大影响。 　　（外脑精华·北京）全球油市综述 　　鉴于经合组织交通运输数据优于预期、以及封城措施逐渐解除，我们将2020年2季度全球石油需求预期值上调320万桶/日，但2季度需求仍同比下跌1990万桶/日。虽然下半年需求数据略有下调，但2020年全年石油需求上调了70万桶/日，同比下降860万桶/日。疫情二次爆发是石油需求面临的一个主要风险。 　　5月份，由于欧佩克+集团的减产协定生效，以及其他产油国减产，预计全球石油供应量将大跌1200万桶/日，至8800万桶/日，创9年新低。对沙特、科威特和阿联酋等部分欧佩克国家而言，5月份减产的基点是4月份创下的历史新高。而对未参与该协定的产油国（以美国和加拿大为首）而言，4月份的产量已经比年初减少了300万桶/日。 　　由于4月份原油加工量数据上调，因而全球炼油业活动顶点后移至5月份。预计2季度全球原油加工量同比下跌1340万桶/日，而2020年全年均值下跌620万桶/日。5月初，炼油业开始出现库存能力不足的迹象。 　　经合组织数据显示，3月份商业石油库存增加6820万桶（220万桶/日），至29.61亿桶，比5年均值高4670万桶，预期需求覆盖天数增至90天的惊人水平。初步数据显示，4月份美国原油库存增加5370万桶（180万桶/日），欧洲和日本原油库存分别增加310万桶和300万桶。4月份，海上浮动原油储量增加990万桶，至1.238亿桶。 　　4月份，新冠疫情导致的需求疲软叠加中东原油出口创新高，导致油价大跌。纽约商交所WTI价格在结算日收于-37美元/桶，为石油期货价格首次出现负值。部分国家封城措施的放宽对汽油价格构成制成。然而，因航空活动持续低迷，航空燃料价差跌破零点。因更多油轮被用于储油，原油和成品油运价走高。 　　市场力量推动减产 　　4月份石油报告的关注焦点是史无前例的需求暴跌。相比之下，油市供给侧短期内并无压力缓解迹象。一方面，欧佩克+集团的减产协定到5月1日才开始生效；另一方面，未参与该协定的产油国的减产前景也不明朗。市场的低迷情绪在5月WTI期货合约价格暴跌至接近-40美元/桶时达到顶点。此后，油市前景有所好转，油价自4月份低点反弹。原因有两方面：一是封城措施的放松，更重要的则是，除欧佩克+集团做出减产承诺外，其他产油国产量也急剧下跌。 　　疫情防控措施逐渐放松有利于石油需求。据我们估算，到5月底，生活受限于疫情防控措施的全球人口将由近期40亿人的峰值降至约28亿人。虽然人流物流依然受限，但企业开始逐渐复工，这将提振石油需求。鉴于此，以及发达经济体交通数据优于我们先前的预期，我们上调了2季度需求预期值。2020年全年需求降幅预期值由930万桶/日下调至860万桶/日。 　　市场力量在油市供给侧显示了威力。未参与欧佩克+减产协定的产油国大力减产，速度超出预期水平。以美国和加拿大为首，这些产油国4月份的产量已经比年初下降了300万桶/日，而且可望进一步减少。5月1日起，欧佩克+减产协定已生效。假定该协定参与国完全履约，加之非参与国的减产，我们预计5月份全球石油供应量将环比下降1200万桶/日。 　　就6月份而言，沙特已宣布自愿额外减产100万桶/日。阿联酋和科威特随之宣布了类似的决定。这意味着，沙特6月产量将比4月创下的峰值暴跌440万桶/日。然而，到今年年底，对全球油市同比减产贡献最大的将是美国，预计美国2020年底产量将同比下跌280万桶/日，而沙特产量将同比下跌90万桶/日（假定其100%履行减产协定，且自愿额外减产仅限于6月份）。欧佩克+成员国将于6月10日举行会议，讨论市场现状和协议执行进度。 　　因此，石油生产正在对市场力量做出反应，而全球经济活动正在走向脆弱的渐进式复苏。然而，主要不确定性依然存在。最大的不确定性在于，各国放松封城措施是否会导致疫情二次爆发。另一项重要不确定性在于，欧佩克+减产协定的主要参与国是否都会严格履行承诺。这些重要问题的答案将对油市产生重大影响。 　　英文原文： Oil Market Report 　　Highlights 　　Better than expected mobility in OECD countries and the gradual easing of lockdown measures led to an upward adjustment of 3.2 mb/d to our global 2Q20 demand number; but it is still sharply down on last year by 19.9 mb/d. Although 2H20 will be slightly weaker than previously forecast, our outlook for 2020 as a whole shows a demand fall of 8.6 mb/d, 0.7 mb/d more than in our previous Report. A resurgence of Covid-19 is a major risk factor for demand. 　　Global oil supply is set to fall by a spectacular 12 mb/d in May to a nine-year low of 88 mb/d, as the OPEC+ agreement takes effect and production declines elsewhere. For some OPEC countries, e.g. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, lower May production is from record highs in April. Led by the United States and Canada, April supplies from countries outside of the deal were already 3 mb/d lower than at the start of the year. 　　The peak decline for global refining activity has shifted to May as our April throughput estimate was revised up on new data and higher demand. In 2Q20, global runs are expected to fall by 13.4 mb/d y-o-y, with 2020 average throughput down by 6.2 mb/d. Signs of refinery storage bottlenecks started multiplying at the beginning of May, with several refineries in Europe, Asia and Africa reported to be closed for an indeterminate period. 　　OECD data for March show that industry stocks rose by 68.2 mb (2.2 mb/d) to 2 961 mb. Total OECD stocks stood 46.7 mb above the five-year average and, due to the weak outlook, now provide an incredible 90 days of forward demand coverage. Preliminary data show that US crude stocks built by 53.7 mb in April (1.8 mb/d), and crude inventories in Europe and Japan also rose by 3.1 mb and 3 mb, respectively. In April, floating storage of crude oil increased by 9.9 mb to 123.8 mb. 　　Oil prices fell in April on weak demand due to Covid-19 and record-high Middle Eastern exports. Negative oil futures prices were seen for the first time when NYMEX WTI settled at -$37/bbl the day before the May contract expired. Easing lockdown measures in some countries provided support to gasoline markets; however, jet cracks fell below zero as aviation activity remains depressed. Crude and product shipping costs rose as more vessels were chartered for floating storage. 　　Markets force the issue 　　In last month’s Report, the focus was on demand destruction on a historic scale, with little immediate relief expected from the supply side as the OPEC+ agreement was not due to come into effect until 1 May. Also, it was unclear when and by how much production would fall in other countries. This dark mood peaked in what the IEA Executive Director called “Black April,” a month that saw the price of the May WTI futures contract plunge to almost minus $40 a barrel. Since then, the outlook has improved somewhat and prices, while still far below where they were before the start of the Covid-19 crisis, have rebounded from their April lows. There are two main reasons for this: the easing of lockdown measures and – more important – steep production declines in non-OPEC countries alongside the commitments made by the OPEC+ agreement. 　　The gradual relaxation of restrictions on movement is helping demand. We estimate that from a recent peak of 4 billion, the number of people living under some form of confinement at the end of May will drop to about 2.8 billion worldwide. Mobility still remains limited for many citizens, but businesses are starting to reopen gradually and people are returning to work, which will provide a boost to oil demand, albeit a modest one at first. Taking into account these developments as well as new mobility data from advanced economies that was stronger than in our previous forecast, we have raised our 2Q20 demand estimate. For 2020 as a whole, last month’s forecast of a decline of 9.3 mb/d is improved to -8.6 mb/d. 　　It is on the supply side where market forces have demonstrated their power and shown that the pain of lower prices affects all producers. We are seeing massive cuts in output from countries outside the OPEC+ agreement and faster than expected. This group, led by the United States and Canada, saw output in April 3 mb/d lower than at the start of the year. In June, that drop could reach 4 mb/d, with perhaps more to come. Now, the OPEC+ agreement has come into effect. Assuming full compliance, and factoring in declines in other countries, we estimate a reduction in global supply in May of 12 mb/d, month on month. For June, Saudi Arabia on Monday announced that it will reinforce the agreement by voluntarily cutting production by 1 mb/d more than required. The UAE and Kuwait have followed suit with extra cuts of their own. This means that Saudi production in June will be an extraordinary 4.4 mb/d below April’s record level. By year-end, however, it is the United States that is the biggest contributor to global supply reductions compared with a year ago. US production could be 2.8 mb/d lower than at the end of 2019. For Saudi Arabia, the fall will be 0.9 mb/d assuming 100% compliance with the OPEC+ deal and that the extra voluntary cut applies only to June. OPEC+ producers will meet on 10 June to discuss the state of the market and the progress of the output agreement. 　　So, oil production is reacting in a big way to market forces and economic activity is beginning a gradual-but-fragile recovery. However, major uncertainties remain. The biggest is whether governments can ease the lockdown measures without sparking a resurgence of Covid-19 outbreaks. Another is whether a high level of compliance with the OPEC+ agreement will be achieved and maintained by all the major parties. These are big questions – and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have major consequences for the oil market. 来源：国际能源署 \t