巴黎银行：美国经济进入紧急状态

巴黎银行：美国经济进入紧急状态(2020.05.07) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：尽管新冠疫情在美国爆发较晚，并受到特朗普总统的轻视，但当下疫情正在迅速蔓延。在联邦体制之下，美国采取了各自为战的抗疫方式，各州自行决定是否采取封城措施。联邦政府虽关闭了国家边界，却不愿对国内货物和人员流动施加限制。面对经济衰退的前景，美国金融市场大跌，政府促使国会通过了力度空前的财政刺激措施，美联储则推出了堪比马歇尔计划的货币刺激措施。 　　（外脑精华·北京）面对新冠疫情，美国无异于其他国家，其国民和经济同样无法逃脱疫情打击。尽管疫情在美国爆发较晚，并受到特朗普总统的轻视，但当下疫情正在迅速蔓延，以至于世卫组织准备宣布美国为新的疫情传播中心。在本国的联邦体制之下，美国采取了各州各自为战的抗疫方式，各州自行决定是否采取封城措施。联邦政府虽关闭了国家边界，却不愿对国内货物和人员流动施加限制。面对经济衰退的前景，美国金融市场大跌，美联储推出了堪比马歇尔计划的货币刺激措施。 　　疫情急转直下 　　2020年3月12日，美国领导层依然态度淡然，尽管此时意大利已经开始全力抗疫，强化封城措施，前总理伦齐也敦促欧洲进行同样操作。特朗普总统相信，疫苗会很快研发成功，病毒会很快消失，并且几乎不会传播。相反，形势迅速恶化，以至于世界卫生组织正准备宣布美国为新冠疫情的新震中。在我们发表之时，世界第一超级大国已经报告了28万例确诊病例和7000例死亡。新冠疫情传染呈指数级增长，与欧洲受影响国家的曲线相当。 　　各自为战 　　凭借其联邦结构，美国对新冠疫情采取了分散的做法。自3月15日以来，受灾最严重的州对其居民实施了封锁措施或社会隔离，限制非必要工人的流动，并关闭了大多数娱乐场所和零售店。其他州，如新泽西州、伊利诺伊州、佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州，也或多或少地采取了类似的措施。尽管总统希望看到“所有的教堂在复活节前重新收拾他们的长椅”，但地方一级已采取措施保护居民，只有极少数地方没有任何限制。美国经济正在冻结。3月份，与投资和经济活动密切相关的投资供应经理人（ISM）指数所描述的工业订单降至42.2，为2009年以来的最低水平，并将继续下降，这加剧了2020年2季度GDP创纪录收缩的情况。 　　大规模财政支持 　　尽管美国拥有先进的医疗体系，但它并没有很好的设备来应对大规模疫情。这种高度选择性的医疗体系成本高昂－－美国将国内生产总值的17个百分点用于医疗保健，是经合组织国家中最高的－－但其医院容量仅限于每1000名居民拥有2.8张床位，法国是其两倍，德国是其三倍。由于没有全民医疗保险，该系统只能为那些没有私人保险的人提供有限的服务，接近1.06亿美国人。通常情况下，医疗保障是通过就业提供的，而失业率的激增只会增加民众面对新冠疫情的脆弱性。 　　特朗普政府终于意识到眼前的利害关系，推动国会通过了《冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全法案》（CARES），这是一项前所未有的大规模财政刺激计划。在众议院占多数的民主党人的压力下，该法案的规模扩大了一倍，以满足低收入者和失业者的需求。除了为企业提供高达9000亿美元的担保贷款外，联邦政府还将通过税收抵免或延长福利向美国家庭转移约630亿美元。使用测试系统，每个美国家庭将从财政部收到一张支票，每张支票的最高金额为3000美元。联邦政府还将在截至2020年7月31日的4个月期间增加每周600美元的失业救济金，失业救济金因州而异，但平均每周300美元左右。 　　美联储大力应对 　　政府正准备缓冲经济冲击，这是市场和美联储已基本预见到的，再也无法否认。从3月3日开始，美联储开始下调关键利率，并在3月15日将其下调至几乎为零。它重新启动了2008年金融危机期间设立的特殊流动性工具。美联储（Fed）的量化宽松证券购买计划曾被提高至每年最高7000亿美元，但现在实施的几乎没有限制。这些行动，加上互换安排和与其他央行的协调行动，帮助外汇和债券市场恢复了一些平静，至少是暂时恢复，因为美元流动性受到挤压，导致许多货币贬值，利差急剧扩大。 　　英文原文： State of emergency 　　The American people and the US economy will no longer be spared the coronavirus pandemic, no more than any other country. Arriving belatedly on US soil and long belittled by President Trump, the virus is now spreading rampantly, to the point that WHO is now preparing to declare the United States the pandemic’s new epicentre. With its federal structure, the US has taken a scattered approach, leaving each state to decide whether or not to introduce lockdown measures. Although the White House has closed the country’s borders (to the European Union and Canada, among others), it was reluctant to restrict domestic movements of goods and people. Foreseeing recession, the markets have plunged and the central bank has launched a veritable monetary “Marshall Plan”. 　　On 12 March 2020, the tone in Washington was serene even as Italy, already swamped by the epidemic, was strengthening its lockdown measures and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was urging Europe to do the same. President Trump was convinced that a vaccine would be rapidly discovered and the virus would disappear quickly, with little propagation. To the contrary, the situation has deteriorated rapidly, to the point that the World Health Organisation (WHO) is preparing to declare the US as the pandemic’s new epicentre. As we went to press, the world’s number one superpower had reported 280,000 confirmed cases and 7,000 deaths. Covid-19 contamination is progressing exponentially, comparable to the curves already seen in European affected countries. 　　With its federal structure, the US has taken a scattered approach to the pandemic. Since 15 March, the hardest hit states (New York and California) have imposed lockdown measures or social distancing on their residents, limiting the movements of non-essential workers and closing most recreational spaces (bars, restaurants, theatres, sports facilities, etc.) and retail stores. Other states, such as New Jersey, Illinois, Florida and Texas, have followed suit with more or less severity. Despite the President’s hopes of seeing “all the churches packing their pews again by Easter”, measures have been taken at the local level to protect residents, and only a very small list of places have put no restrictions into place of any kind. The US economy is freezing up. Industrial orders as depicted by the Investment Supply Manager (ISM) index – that is closely correlated with investment and economic activity – fell to 42.2 in March, the lowest level since 2009, and will continue to fall, raising the spectre of a record-breaking contraction of GDP in Q2 2020. 　　High-risk populations and massive fiscal support 　　Although the US has a leading-edge healthcare system, it is not well equipped to handle a mass epidemic. The highly-selective system is costly – the US devotes 17 points of GDP to healthcare, the highest among the OECD countries – but its hospital capacity is limited to only 2.8 beds per 1000 inhabitants, two times less than in France and three times less than in Germany. Without universal healthcare coverage, the system provides only limited access to those with no private insurance – i.e. nearly 106 million Americans (1 in 3). More often than not, health care protection is provided through jobs, and the surge in unemployment will only increase the population’s vulnerability in the face of the pandemic. 　　Finally aware of the stakes at hand, the Trump administration pushed Congress to pass the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES), an unprecedentedly large fiscal stimulus package (USD 2,200 bn, the equivalent to 10% of GDP or 50% of the annual Federal budget). The bill doubled in size under pressure from the Democrats, who have a majority in the House, to cover the needs of low-income individuals and those who have lost their jobs. In addition to guaranteed loans for companies, which could amount to as much as USD 900 bn, the Federal government will transfer roughly USD 630 bn to American households through tax credits or extended benefits. Using a means-tested system, each American household will receive a check from the Treasury for a maximum amount of USD 3,000 each. The Federal government will also top up unemployment benefits, which vary from state to state but which average roughly USD 300 a week, by USD 600 a week during the 4-month period ending 31 July 2020. 　　Monetary bazooka 　　The government is preparing to buffer an economic shock which it can no longer deny, and which has been largely foreseen by the markets and the Fed. Starting on 3 March, the Fed began cutting its key rates, slashing them to virtually zero on 15 March. It reactivated the exceptional liquidity facilities that were set up during the 2008 financial crisis. Quantitative easing, the Fed’s securities purchasing programme, which had been raised to a maximum of USD 700 bn a year, is now being conducted with virtually no limits. These actions, coupled with swap arrangements and concerted actions with other central banks, have helped restore some calm, at least temporarily, in the foreign exchange and bond markets, where the squeeze on USD liquidity has led many currencies to depreciate, and interest rate spreads have widened sharply. 来源：巴黎银行，作者：Jean-Luc Proutat \t