安联：2季度欧元区经济走势将显著恶化

安联：2季度欧元区经济走势将显著恶化(2020.05.07) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新冠疫情已重创欧元区经济。初步数据显示，1季度欧元区GDP环比下降3.6%，创史上最大降幅。鉴于欧元区多数成员国直至3月中旬才开始实施疫情防控措施，预计该区GDP在2季度将环比暴跌近17%，全年将下降9.3%。欧元区GDP到2021年中期才能恢复至疫情爆发前的水平。 　　（外脑精华·北京）1季度GDP创史上最大降幅 　　新冠疫情已经重创欧元区经济。欧盟统计局发布的初步预估数据显示，欧元区今年1季度GDP环比下降3.6%，创下编制该数据以来的最大降幅。 　　相比之下，在金融危机最严重的2009年1季度，欧元区GDP环比下降了3.1%。欧元区各成员国发布的GDP数据证实，各国经济活动全面遭受重创，无一幸免：意大利、法国、西班牙的GDP在今年1季度均创下历史最大跌幅，分别环比下降4.7%、5.8%和5.2%，比利时和奥地利的GDP在今年1季度也分别环比大幅下降3.9%和2.5%。 　　初步数据并未反映疫情影响严重性 　　欧盟统计局今日公布的GDP数据显然缺乏可信度。由于鲜有已发布的3月份硬经济数据，统计部门实际上重点估测的是1季度欧元区GDP增长面临的高于正常水平的不确定性。例如，鉴于缺乏管理性数据,比利时统计局声称其采取了一种调整的统计方法，将新闻媒体、网站和受访企业公布的数据和各种调查数据等一系列已发布数据纳入对新冠疫情的经济影响的预期。预计欧元区1季度欧元区GDP数据在未来几个月中将会得到重大修正。 　　2季度数据将显著恶化 　　1季度数据只是一个缩影，欧元区2季度GDP数据将显著恶化。如果1季度数据令人不安，欧元区经济显然在2季度将进一步下滑。我们预计，在4-6月的3个月期间，欧元区GDP的环比降幅将达到两位数水平，环比降幅将接近17%。毕竟，多数欧元区经济体直至3月中旬才开展实施限制措施，并于4月开始全面发挥作用，我们预计4月份欧元区经济活动将降至低于正常水平30%至40%的水平。 　　经济活动恢复正常仍有待时日 　　虽然曙光乍现，随着一些国家从5月初开始逐步解除限制措施，经济出现温和复苏迹象，但欧元区日常生活不可能迅速恢复至新冠疫情爆发前的常态。毕竟，我们预计在疫情过后，直至研发出一种新冠病毒疫苗之前，欧元区消费和投资活动将继续萎靡不振：因为一些控制措施继续实施（尤其是对大型集会和旅行的限制措施表明这些行业可能无法在2020年全面重启；消费者将会继续保持谨慎态度，尤其是解除限制措施的早期阶段（即民众在5月不会踏入电影院）；下岗人员或缩短工时的员工需要一段时间才能重返劳动力市场,这将抑制消费支出；各国不会同时解除限制措施将使外需在短期内可能将继续受到影响，因而投资活动将继续萎靡不振。因而，欧元区GDP到2021年中期才能恢复至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。不过，在一些国家，尤其是服务业和旅游业在附加值占据重大比重的国家，复苏进程可能将持续至2021年中期之后，因为新冠疫情可能将对这些行业可能造成更持久的冲击。如果在未来不采取新的大规模财政刺激措施来推动经济复苏，欧元区GDP在今年将下降9.3%。如果研发出的一种新冠病毒疫苗的全面推广使得情况回复至常态，欧元区GDP在2021年将会回升9.3%。 　　英文原文： Black hole economics 　　The Covid-19 crisis has hit the Eurozone economy like a meteorite. According to a preliminary flash estimate provided by Eurostat, Eurozone GDP declined by -3.6% q/q in Q1 2020 – the sharpest decline on record. 　　To compare and contrast, in Q1 2009, at the height of the Great Financial Crisis, Eurozone GDP contracted by -3.1% q/q. Available national GDP releases confirm that the hit to economic activity was widespread across the region, with no economy immune to the shock: Italy (-4.7% q/q), France (-5.8% q/q) and Spain (-5.2% q/q) recorded the sharpest contractions, but GDP declines in Belgium (-3.9% q/q) and Austria (-2.5% q/q) still proved dramatic. 　　Black hole economics: Today’s GDP releases clearly have to be taken with a pinch of salt. With little hard economic data available for the month of March, statistics offices in fact underlined the even higher-than-usual uncertainty surrounding their Q1 growth estimates. Given the lack of administrative data, the Belgium Statistics office, for instance, stated that it used an adapted methodology for which a wide range of available information, including news releases, websites and contacts with companies and various surveys, were considered as inputs to form assumptions about the economic impact of Covid-19. Expect significant revisions to come in the months ahead. 　　Q1 is only the tip of the iceberg, Q2 will be MUCH worse. If the Q1 data makes you nervous, don’t ask about what is in store for Q2 2020. We expect to see a double-digit quarterly GDP contraction to the tune of close to -17% q/q in the three months between April and June. After all, confinement measures were imposed in most Eurozone economies only in mid-March and started to fully bite in April, which is when we expect economic activity levels to have dropped 30%-40% below normal. While we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel – with economies showing signs of a timid recovery in line with the gradual easing of containment measures in several countries from early May onwards – a quick return to pre-Covid-19 daily life is very unlikely. After all, we expect consumption and investment activity to remain lackluster in the post-crisis regime until a vaccine is in place as: (1) some containment measures will remain in place (most notably restrictions on large gatherings and travel, suggesting that these sectors may not fully restart in 2020) (2) consumers will remain cautious particularly in the early stages of deconfinement (i.e. we will not all go to the cinema in May) (3) it will take some time for laid-off workers or those on reduced hours to be reabsorbed in the labor market, which should keep a lid on consumer spending (4) external demand could remain impaired in the near-term with countries not all deconfining at the same time so that investment activity will also prove subdued at best. Therefore it should take until mid-2021 for Eurozone GDP to recover to its pre-Covid-19 levels. However, in some countries, particularly those that boast a large value-added share in services and tourism, the recovery process could well last until mid-2021 as these sectors may see longer-lasting damage from the crisis. Assuming no further substantial fiscal stimulus down the line in an effort to jump-start the economic recovery, the Eurozone economy looks set to contract by -9.3% in 2020.The rebound in 2021 of +9.3% is based on the assumption that the discovery and wide-spread distribution of a vaccine allows for a return to normalcy. 来源：安联，作者：Georges Dib，Patrick Krizan，Katharina Uterm?hl \t