彼德森国际经济研究所：韩国面临疫情造成的经济挑战

彼德森国际经济研究所：韩国面临疫情造成的经济挑战(2020.05.07) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：韩国虽然成功控制了新冠疫情，但经济活动已遭受重创，服务业受到的影响尤为严重。疫情对韩国经济的打击不亚于对美国经济的打击。1季度韩国GDP环比下降1.4%，同比增长1.3%，两项指标均创下2008～2009年以来的新低。未来几个月之中，韩国经济面临的主要挑战将是确保中小企业和服务行业继续生存，以及抵御外部经济冲击。 　　（外脑精华·北京）疫情防控领先，但经济遭受重创 　　在新冠病毒检测试剂盒短缺造成美国马里兰州抗疫事务陷入困局之际，从韩国购入50万个试剂盒使得该州州长拉里·霍根在4月末成为新闻焦点人物。对于他的遭遇，特朗普总统批评霍根未能等到试剂盒在美国上市。这一事件表明韩国在致力于通过提供新冠病毒检测试剂盒和其他必要医疗设备来避免新冠疫情造成最严重后果方面远远领先于其他国家。 　　事实上，并非只有马里兰州向韩国求助。由于一些国家也求助于韩国，韩国3月份检测设备出口额增长了120%。与此同时，韩国每日新增新冠病毒确诊病例已从900例降至50例以下。 　　虽然成功控制了新冠疫情，但韩国经济已遭受重创，尤其是服务业。韩国今年1季度GDP环比下降1.4%，但同比增长1.3%。韩国今年1季度GDP环比增速和同比增速均创下2008～2009年以来的新低。 　　在2015年中东呼吸综合征疫情蔓延期间，韩国获得了防疫经验。例如，在应对新冠疫情方面，韩国迅速采取措施来暂时批准制药企业和制造企业生产或进口未经批准的诊断产品，并放宽监管程序来使私营和公共医疗机构可以使用这些产品。2月中旬期间，韩国的新冠病毒检测人数开始增长。在高峰期，韩国每日进行近12000至18000次检测。在韩国发现首例确诊病例的2天后的1月22日，美国出现首例新冠病毒确诊病例，但美国新冠病毒检测人数在3月中旬才开始增长，目前美国各州新冠病毒检测人数的数值差约19万。此外，韩国迅速在全国范围内建立了新冠病毒筛查设施。 　　大规模检测帮助韩国避免了陷入全面封锁局面。相反，韩国政府强烈建议对旅行者进行严格的自我隔离，并将社交隔离作为遏制措施。在4月19日之前，韩国一直在“强化”社会隔离运动，以确保韩国民众居家办公。韩国政府准许国内继续开展重大和非必要性商业活动，同时宣布关停宗教、体育、娱乐和休闲场所。 　　在4月初，韩国每日新增新冠病例降至50例以下，即使在4月15日举行大选之后，这一数据依然持稳，这与美国推迟总统初选时间形成鲜明对比。从4月20日开始，随着社会隔离措施的逐步解除，韩国宗教、体育、娱乐、休闲场所已经恢复运营，而且必须严格遵守预防和消毒措施。韩国职业棒球比赛可在空场比赛情况下重启。与此同时，韩国民众自愿继续在公共场合戴口罩。 　　经济挑战依然严峻 　　虽然韩国的新冠疫情趋稳，但韩国经济未能幸免于难。新冠疫情对并未采取封锁政策的韩国造成的经济后果不亚于对采取了更严厉措施的美国所造成的经济后果。 　　在新冠疫情期间，韩国各行业均遭受了不同程度的影响。韩国2月份和3月份产出分别环比下降3.5%和0.3%。在2至3月期间，韩国服务业遭受重创，尤其是食品和酒店服务行业。作为在2月份遭受最严重冲击的行业之一，在供应链问题得到解决后，韩国汽车业在3月份恢复运营。相比之下，美国所有行业的产出在3月份都出现下滑。美国餐饮和酒吧行业的销售额也锐减。韩国2月制造业产能利用率环比下降4.9%，降幅接近美国3月制造业产能利用率环比降幅。不过，韩国3月制造业产能利用率环比回升3.4%。 　　由于韩国公众倾向于减少与人接触和旅行，韩国2月份零售额下降2.3%。韩国实体店零售额下降7.5%，而线上零售额增长34.3%。在线下零售店中，民众便于到达的便利店和“超市”的销售额增长，。韩国线上食品销售额几乎翻了一番，但百货商店和超市的销售额下降。在美国，零售业和食品服务业的3月份销售额也双双下降。而且美国百货店销售额出现了与韩国同等幅度的下滑。与此形成对比的是，美国杂货店和酒类商店的销售额大幅增长，而且非商店零售商的销售额增长了12%，与韩国相比增幅不大。 　　随着新冠病毒确诊病例数量在2月末开始加速增长，韩国劳动力市场状况在3月份发生恶化。韩国失业率上升0.5%至3.5%。韩国就业人数下降2.5%，失业人数增长14%。韩国3月份休假人数同比增长126万。韩国酒店、食品服务、医疗和社会服务行业遭受了最严重冲击，这些行业的从业人员人数降幅最大。韩国制造业从业人员人数减少0.7%。韩国3月首次申请失业救济的人数同比增长24.8%，环比增长46%。虽然就业入口降速的相似，但美国失业率的升幅高于韩国。美国休闲和酒店行业同样遭受了最严重的冲击，而美国制造业并未遭受重创。不过，美国可能蒙受了更大的经济损失，因为美国发布的3月份官方数据并未包含3月份下半月数据。 　　韩国3月商品出口额持平于2019年水平。韩国3月份对美国和欧盟的出口额增长，当时美国和欧盟新冠病毒确诊病例已经开始增长。不过，韩国商品出口前景已经恶化。世贸组织预测，2020年全球商品贸易额将锐减。今年4月前20天的韩国出口额同比大幅下降27%。全球需求的崩溃可能会导致新冠疫情对韩国劳动力市场的间接影响加重，尤其是对韩国制造业。 　　虽然韩国公共卫生部门迅速采取了应对措施，而且韩国并未采取封锁措施，但韩国劳动力市场，尤其是对服务业而言，几乎全部遭受了新冠疫情的冲击。在未来几个月，韩国经济面临的主要挑战将是维系中小企业和服务行业的生存，以及抵御外部冲击。同样重要的是，随着民众生活恢复常态，韩国需要保持警惕，以防新冠疫情复发。 　　英文原文： Despite flattening the curve, South Korea faces economic challenges from COVID-19 as the United States 　　At a time when a lack of test kits stalls the battle against COVID-19, Governor Larry Hogan of the state of Maryland made news in late April by receiving 500,000 test kits from South Korea. For his troubles, Hogan was criticized by President Donald Trump for not waiting until kits are available in the United States. The episode revealed one thing: South Korea has been far ahead of other countries in making test kits and other needed medical gear available to avert the worst of the plague. 　　In fact, Maryland is not the only entity that has turned to South Korea. South Korean exports of test kits grew by 120 percent in March as a number of countries have also reached out. Meanwhile, the number of daily new confirmed cases has fallen below 50 from what was once over 900 in South Korea. 　　Despite its success in flattening the curve, South Korea’s economy has suffered considerable damage, particularly in the service sector. The economy shrank by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2020, compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. The economy still grew by 1.3 percent from a year earlier. But both rates are the worst since 2008–09. 　　SOUTH KOREA WAS BETTER PREPARED THAN OTHER COUNTRIES 　　The country gained experience during the spread of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015. For example, in responding to COVID-19, South Korea moved quickly to temporarily allow pharmaceutical firms and manufacturers to produce or import unapproved diagnostic products and eased the regulatory process so that private and public medical institutions could use them. The number of new tests started to mount in mid-February. During its peak, about 12,000 to 18,000 tests were conducted every day in South Korea. In the United States, where the first confirmed case was found on January 22, two days after South Korea, the number of new tests began to grow only in mid-March and now stands around 190,000 with variations across states. Also, South Korea quickly set up COVID-19 screening facilities nationwide. 　　Massive testing helped South Korea avoid a full lockdown situation. Instead, the government strongly recommended both strict self-quarantine for travelers and social distancing as containment measures. The “enhanced” social distancing campaign to stay home and work from home was in place until April 19. Both essential and nonessential businesses remained open while religious, sports, entertainment, and leisure facilities were closed. 　　In early April, the number of new daily cases in South Korea fell below 50 and continues to be steady even after the general election on April 15, in contrast to the postponed presidential primary elections in the United States. Starting on April 20, as the social distancing campaign was dialed down, religious/sports/entertainment/leisure facilities have gone back to business and must strictly conform to preventative and disinfection measures. Professional baseball games can resume without spectators in stadiums. Meanwhile, South Koreans voluntarily continue wearing masks in public. 　　BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN MUCH LIKE IN THE UNITED STATES 　　In spite of the COVID-19 curve leveling off, the South Korean economy has not escaped the ravages of the disease. The economic outcomes in South Korea, where no lockdown was implemented, can be compared with those in the United States, where more drastic measures were introduced.[1] 　　During the pandemic, sectors were unevenly affected in South Korea. Production dropped by 3.5 percent economywide in February compared with January and by 0.3 percent in March. The service sector was hurt severely both in February and March, particularly the food/hospitality service sectors. The automobile industry, which was one of the hardest hit sectors in February, picked up its production in March after the resolution of the supply chain issue. In contrast, industrial production in all industry groups fell in the United States in March. Restaurants and bars experienced a sharp decline in their sales in the United States as well. South Korean capacity utilization in manufacturing dropped by 4.9 percentage points in February compared with January, a similar drop as in the United States in March. However, it bounced back in March by 3.4 percentage points in South Korea. 　　With a public inclination to reduce human contact and travel in South Korea, retail sales dropped by 2.3 percent in February.[2] Brick and mortar sales dropped by 7.5 percent, while online sales jumped by 34.3 percent.[3] Among offline sellers, sales increased for convenience stores and “super supermarkets” that people don’t have to travel far to get to. Sales of food products almost doubled online but dropped in department stores and supermarkets. In the United States, retail and food services also experienced a fall in sales in March. Department stores experienced a similar decline in sales as in South Korea. In contrast, sales of grocery and liquor stores soared, and nonstore retailers saw a 12 percent increase in sales, a modest growth compared with South Korea. 　　The South Korean labor market conditions deteriorated in March as the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases started to accelerate in late February. The unemployment rate climbed by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5 percent.[4] The number of employed dropped by 2.5 percent, and the number of unemployed increased by 14 percent. The number of furloughs increased by 1.26 million in March (year over year). Hospitality and food services, healthcare, and social services were hit the hardest with the highest drop in the number of employed. The manufacturing industry experienced a milder shock by –0.7 percent. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in March jumped by 24.8 percent year-over-year and 46 percent compared with February. While the rate of decline in employment was similar, the rise in unemployment was more severe in the United States. Similarly, the leisure and hospitality sector was the most affected, while manufacturing sector was not hit severely. However, the US economy is likely to have suffered more damage, as the US official data for March do not capture the second half of the month. 　　South Korea was able to maintain its merchandise exports in March at its 2019 level. That month its exports increased to the United States and the European Union, where confirmed COVID-19 cases had started increasing. However, prospects for South Korea’s merchandise exports are no longer as bright. The World Trade Organization has projected that global merchandise trade will severely drop in 2020. Already in the first 20 days of April, South Korean exports have dropped significantly by 27 percent from the same time in 2019. Collapse in global demand could aggravate the indirect impact of COVID-19 on the South Korean labor market, especially its manufacturing sector. 　　Despite rapid public health responses and no lockdowns in South Korea, its labor market, especially the service sector, has hardly been spared from the wreckage of COVID-19. The main challenge for the South Korean economy in the coming months will be to sustain small and medium enterprises and service sectors and protect against external shocks. Equally important, as people return to normalcy, South Korea needs to remain alert to prevent a second wave of COVID-19. 来源：彼德森国际经济研究所，作者：Soyoung Han，Euijin Jung \t