经济学人：强劲反弹的美股面临三大威胁

经济学人：强劲反弹的美股面临三大威胁(2020.05.14) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：美国股市在暴跌之后强劲反弹。令人不安的是，华尔街的乐观情绪与其他市场的走势形成鲜明对照。目前美股价位高于去年8月的水平，这似乎意味着，美国商业乃至美国经济将恢复正常。事实上，这种前景面临着众多威胁，其中有三种尤为突出：疫情余震的风险；欺诈问题；大公司遭遇政治反抗的风险。当下，美股投资者认为美联储是自己的后盾。但市场情绪可以发生突变，近几个月的情况就是明证。这场股市大戏还会继续下去。 　　（外脑精华·北京）股市历史中有很多大事件：1929年崩盘；单日股市暴跌20%的1987年黑色星期一；1999年的网络泡沫。尽管有这些先例，过去8周的股市走势还是令人震撼。美国股市在暴跌之后疯狂反弹。2月19日到3月23日之间，标准普尔500指数损失了三分之一的价值。此后该指数毫无停顿，即强劲反弹，收复了一半多跌幅。这轮反弹的诱因是关于美联储购买公司债、以帮助大企业解决债务问题的消息。该消息令恐慌的投资者立刻转为乐观状态。 　　令人不安的是，华尔街的乐观情绪与其他市场的走势形成鲜明对照。例如，英国和欧洲大陆股市的回升势头要弱得多。而且实体经济还远没有恢复活力。尽管美国放松了封城措施，但就业已经受到了沉重打击，失业率由4%飙升至16%左右，创1948年以来新高。虽然大公司股价高涨、并得到美联储的帮助，但小企业仍难以获得政府的资金支持。 　　2007～2009年金融危机造成的伤口再次被撕裂。在谁来承担抗疫费用问题上的厮杀才刚刚开始。从目前的趋势来看，大公司很可能会遭遇政治反抗。 　　美联储强力应对引发强劲反弹 　　先看市场走势。美股情绪好转的很大一部分原因在于，美联储的应对力度远超过其他央行。美联储正在以超乎想象的规模买进资产，并承诺购买更多公司债，包括高收益“垃圾债券”。新发行公司债市场在2月份陷入瘫痪，而今已重新活跃起来。美国企业在过去6周之中发行了5600亿美元债务，为正常水平的两倍。美联储实际上充当了美国企业界的现金流后盾。美国股市察觉了其意味，于是急剧反弹。 　　美联储别无选择－－如果公司债市场崩盘，将令当前的深度经济衰退雪上加霜。投资者大举买入美股，显示了对美联储对策的支持。他们没有其他优质投资标的。美国国债收益率勉强保持正值。而日本和很多欧洲国债收益率已是负值，持有至到期就会损失本金，加上通胀，损失会更大，因而股票具有吸引力。到3月末，美股的大跌已经足够吸引最大胆的投资者。 　　美股前景面临三大威胁 　　然而，近期股价上涨并不平衡。疫情爆发前的股市走势就很不平衡，现在就更是如此。英国和欧洲大陆股市中充斥着汽车制造、银行和能源等陷入困境的行业，因而走势落后，而且近期欧元前景再次引起担忧。在美国，投资者更信任少数几家科技公司（谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、脸谱和微软），这五家公司就占标普市值的五分之一。 　　这在一定程度上是合理的。资产管理者必须投资于最佳标的。但美股变化之快令人担忧。目前美股价位高于去年8月的水平，这似乎意味着，美国商业乃至美国经济将恢复正常。事实上，这种前景面临着众多威胁，其中有三种尤为突出。 　　第一种威胁是疫情余震的风险。完全有可能出现第二波疫情。而且深度经济衰退的后果令人担忧；预计2季度美国GDP将同比下跌10%左右。很多企业希望通过大力削减支出来保持盈利水平以及削减债务。然而，在宏观层面上，企业界厉行紧缩将重创需求。 　　第二种威胁是欺诈问题。连续多年的廉价信贷和金融工程导致的财务欺诈问题或许会暴露出来。最近，亚洲企业界已爆发两起重大丑闻。如果美国发生重大企业丑闻，就可能动摇股市信心，正如2001年的安然事件和2008年的雷曼兄弟事件那样。 　　最被低估的风险是政治反抗的风险。经济下滑将打击小企业而增强幸存的大企业的地位，从而加剧一些行业的集中度。危机需要牺牲，并且会留下高额账单。不难想象，接受救助的行业可能会被加征新税。当下，美股投资者认为美联储是自己的后盾。但市场情绪可以发生突变，近几个月的情况就是明证。这场股市大戏还会继续下去。 　　英文原文： A dangerous gap 　　Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to give. 　　Stockmarket history is packed with drama: the 1929 crash; Black Monday in 1987, when share prices lost 20% in a day; the dotcom mania in 1999. With such precedents, nothing should come as a surprise, but the past eight weeks have been remarkable, nonetheless. A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the S&P 500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss. The catalyst was news that the Federal Reserve would buy corporate bonds, helping big firms finance their debts. Investors shifted from panic to optimism without missing a beat. 　　This rosy view from Wall Street should make you uneasy (see article). It contrasts with markets elsewhere. Shares in Britain and continental Europe, for example, have recovered more sluggishly. And it is a world away from life on Main Street. Even as the lockdown eases in America, the blow to jobs has been savage, with unemployment rising from 4% to about 16%, the highest rate since records began in 1948. While big firms’ shares soar and they get help from the Fed, small businesses are struggling to get cash from Uncle Sam. 　　Wounds from the financial crisis of 2007-09 are being reopened. “This is the second time we’ve bailed their asses out,” grumbled Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, last month. The battle over who pays for the fiscal burdens of the pandemic is just beginning. On the present trajectory, a backlash against big business is likely. 　　Start with events in the markets. Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed, which has acted more dramatically than other central banks, buying up assets on an unimagined scale. It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt, including high-yield “junk” bonds. The market for new issues of corporate bonds, which froze in February, has reopened in spectacular style. Companies have issued $560bn of bonds in the past six weeks, double the normal level. Even beached cruise-line firms have been able to raise cash, albeit at a high price. A cascade of bankruptcies at big firms has been forestalled. The central bank has, in effect, backstopped the cashflow of America Inc. The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed. 　　The Fed has little choice—a run on the corporate-bond market would worsen a deep recession. Investors have cheered it on by piling into shares. They have nowhere else good to put their cash. Government-bond yields are barely positive in America. They are negative in Japan and much of Europe. You are guaranteed to lose money by holding them to maturity, and if inflation rises the losses would be painful. So stocks are appealing. By late March prices had fallen by enough to tempt the braver sort. They steeled themselves with the observation that much of the stockmarket’s value is tied to profits that will be made long after the covid-19 slump has given way to recovery. 　　Tellingly, though, the recent rise in share prices has been uneven. Even before the pandemic the market was lopsided, and it has become more so. Bourses in Britain and continental Europe, chock-full of troubled industries like carmaking, banking and energy, have lagged behind, and there are renewed jitters over the single currency (see article). In America investors have put even more faith in a tiny group of tech darlings—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—which now make up a fifth of the S&P 500 index. There is little euphoria, just a despairing reach for the handful of businesses judged to be all-weather survivors. 　　At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to. American shares are now higher than they were in August. This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, but three stand out. 　　The first is the risk of an aftershock. It is entirely possible that there will be a second wave of infections. And there are also the consequences of a steep recession to contend with—American GDP is expected to drop by about 10% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Many individual bosses hope that ruthless cost-cutting can help protect their margins and pay down the debts accumulated through the furlough. But in aggregate this corporate austerity will depress demand. The likely outcome is a 90% economy, running far below normal levels. 　　A second hazard to reckon with is fraud. Extended booms tend to encourage shifty behaviour, and the expansion before the covid crash was the longest on record. Years of cheap money and financial engineering mean that accounting shenanigans may now be laid bare. Already there have been two notable scandals in Asia in recent weeks, at Luckin Coffee, a Chinese Starbucks wannabe, and Hin Leong, a Singaporean energy trader that has been hiding giant losses (see article). A big fraud or corporate collapse in America could rock the markets’ confidence, much as the demise of Enron shredded investors’ nerves in 2001 and Lehman Brothers led the stockmarket down in 2008. 　　The most overlooked risk is of a political backlash. The slump will hurt smaller firms and leave the bigger corporate survivors in a stronger position, increasing the concentration of some industries that was already a problem before the pandemic. A crisis demands sacrifice and will leave behind a big bill. The clamour for payback will only grow louder if big business has hogged more than its share of the subsidies on offer. It is easy to imagine windfall taxes on bailed-out industries, or a sharp reversal of the steady drop in the statutory federal corporate-tax rate, which fell to 21% in 2017 after President Donald Trump’s tax reforms, from a long-term average of well over 30%. Some Democrats want to limit mergers and stop firms returning cash to their owners. 　　For now, equity investors judge that the Fed has their back. But the mood of the markets can shift suddenly, as an extraordinary couple of months has proved. A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created. This stockmarket drama has a few more acts yet. 来源：经济学人 \t