安联：今年欧洲汽车销量将下降30%

安联：今年欧洲汽车销量将下降30%(2020.05.26) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：为应对新冠疫情而采取的公共交通限制措施导致4月份欧洲新车注册量锐减。目前，欧洲国家的购车需求回暖。但除德国外，这不足以推动购车需求在今年3季度前实现强劲复苏。预计今年欧洲汽车销量将同比大幅下滑30%，创下有记录以来最大跌幅，降至1200万辆。 　　（外脑精华·北京）在欧洲，4月份新车注册量和商业景气指数大幅下滑。基于谷歌趋势的高频指标显示，欧洲国家的购车需求回暖。但除德国外，这不足以推动购车需求在今年3季度前实现强劲复苏。 　　空前下滑 　　欧洲的新车注册量出现空前规模的下滑。由于整个地区全面采取限制措施导致欧洲公共交通大规模受限，以及汽车经销商、汽车展厅和汽车注册机构关闭，欧洲汽车市场在4月份出现空前规模的下滑。5月初以来各国发布的数据显示，4月份德国、法国、西班牙、英国和意大利汽车销量分别同比下降61%、89%、97%、97%和98%。截至4月末，德国、英国、法国、西班牙和意大利的汽车市场今年以来的累计降幅分别为31%、43%、48%、49%和51%。在欧盟汽车市场中占据总计75%市场份额的前五大市场中，今年4月份的汽车销量下降84%，今年以来的汽车销量累计下降42%，相当于新车销量锐减160万辆。 　　欧洲的商业景气指数跌至历史新低水平。欧盟统计局在4月末发布的信心指数显示，欧洲制造业和零售业即期和未来的商业景气指数再度双双下滑。这主要是由于德国制造业和零售业商业景气指标下滑所致，其中的许多指标在4月份创下历史新低，德国产出的价值在欧洲产出价值总额中的占比为45%（在产出量中的占比为25%）,但类似幅度的下降也出现在其他多数汽车生产国，尤其是订单和产出预期。 　　需求回暖 　　高频指标显示，欧洲国家的家庭部门的购车需求回暖，但除德国外，这不足以迅速转换为购车行为。我们对网上搜索“购车”和“汽车价格”的频率进行分析研究，以此来衡量家庭部门的购车兴趣，尤其是他们近期的购车意愿。在网上搜车兴趣回升和新车注册数量回升之间，通常会有平均3～4个月的一个滞后期。 　　谷歌趋势发布的周度数据显示，截至5月10日，我们抽样调查的6个国家（德国、英国、法国、意大利、西班牙和比利时）的民众的购车意愿在2月至3月末及4月初期间大幅下降。在我们抽样调查的多数国家，4月标志着趋势逆转的开始，5月前两周的数据证实了这一点。截至目前，这一点在德国显得最为明显。德国的“购车”和“汽车价格”的搜索量已超过危机前的水平，这表明德国家庭部门正在计划在未来几周购买新车。不过，我们抽样调查的其它国家对汽车的兴趣尚未回升至危机前的水平（法国、意大利、英国和比利时），甚至尚未回升（西班牙）。鉴于平均滞后期的水平，法国新车注册量在今夏之前似乎不大可能恢复至危机前的水平。 　　这对车企而言意味着什么呢？除了解除流动限制措施以外，该地区汽车展厅和汽车经销商的复工是推动购车需求复苏的首要因素。去库存措施将有助于推动需求复苏，尤其是提振首次购车者的构成需求（新冠疫情将是造成民众恐惧使用公共交通工具的一个恐慌因素），但欧洲主要是受更换需求推动的一个成熟的汽车市场，而且预计购车将不会很快变成欧洲多数家庭的一个优先事项，除非这些家庭具有购车的“动机”。在这方面，复产将通过创造新模式来促进复苏，但这将是渐进的过程，而且不足以推动需求全面复苏。如果不采取任何具体措施（例如激励措施、补贴、财政刺激措施，尤其是低排放量汽车扶持措施）来刺激需求，预计今年欧洲汽车市场汽车销量将下降30%。这将创下欧洲汽车销量数据自1999年开始统计以来的最大降幅，预计今年欧洲汽车市场的汽车销量为1200万辆，同比下降600万辆。 　　英文原文： -30% in 2020, in spite of active googling for new cars 　　In Europe, both new car registrations and the business climate slumped in April. High frequency indicators based on Google trends now point to a renewed interest in cars but with the exception of Germany, that won’t be enough to drive a strong revival in car purchases before Q3. 　　A historic slump in new car registrations. Due to confinement measures all across the region, which led to a massive restriction of public mobility and the closure of both car dealers/showrooms and registration agencies, the European automotive markets posted unprecedented slumps in April. According to national figures released since the beginning of May, Germany was down by -61% y/y in April, France by -89%, Spain by -97%, the UK by -97% and Italy by –98%. As of the end of April, the downturn of the automotive market now stands at -31% ytd for Germany, -43% for the UK, -48% for France, -49% for Spain and -51% for Italy. For the top five markets that represent 75% of the EU market, the decline reached -84% in April, pushing the ytd to -42%, - which corresponds to a significant drop of -1.6 million new cars. 　　Business climate surveys reach new lows. Confidence indicators released at the end of April by Eurostat pointed to a renewed deterioration of both the current and future business climate for the manufacturing and retail sides of the industry. This decline was largely driven by the German sub indicators, with many of them pointing to historic lows in April — Germany accounts for ~45% of European production in value terms (~25% in volume terms) — but similar drops were also seen in most other car manufacturing countries, notably regarding orders and production expectations. 　　High frequency signals point to renewed household interest in cars, but this does not yet look strong enough to turn into car purchases soon, except in Germany. We look at the frequency of searches on the internet for ‘car purchase’ and ‘car price’ as a proxy for households’ interest in cars, and in particular their willingness to buy one vehicle in the near term. There is usually a three to four-months lag on average between the rebound of interest in cars on the internet and a recovery in new car registrations. 　　Based on the weekly figures available through Google trends, up to 10 May, the interest in cars deeply declined from February to the end of March/first days of April for the six countries of our sample (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Belgium). April marked the beginning of a trend reversal in most cases, which was confirmed by data for the first two weeks of May. It was by far most obvious in Germany, where searches for ‘car purchase’ and ‘car price’ have already surged above pre-crisis levels, suggesting that households are gearing up to buy new cars in the coming weeks. However, for the other countries of our sample, the interest in cars has not yet recovered to the pre-crisis levels (France, Italy, the UK and Belgium) or even not restarted yet (Spain). Given the average lag, new car registrations look unlikely to recover in France before the end of the summer. 　　What does this mean for companies? The reopening of showrooms and dealers across the region is the first priority for the recovery of demand - apart from the ending of mobility restrictions. Destocking actions could help, notably for first acquisitions (Covid-19 being a fear factor for people using public transportation), but Europe is a mature market mainly driven by replacement needs, and car purchases are not soon expected to become a priority for a majority of households unless they are ‘motivated’ to do so. To this regard, the resuming of production will contribute to the recovery by resulting in new models, but this will be gradual and not sufficient to fully revive demand. In the absence of any specific measures dedicated to boost demand one way or another, such as incentives/subsidies/fiscal stimulus – notably in favour of lower emission vehicles – we should expect the European market to decline by ~30% in 2020. This would put it on course to record its worst performance since the beginnings of these statistics in 1999, with 12 million units sold, down by 6 million units from 2019. 来源：安联，作者：Maxime Lemerle \t