裕利安宜：欧洲新兴地区经济复苏前景恶化

裕利安宜：欧洲新兴地区经济复苏前景恶化(2020.11.26) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：3季度欧洲新兴地区经济活动显著回升，但新一轮封锁将使该地区经济在4季度陷入双底衰退。新一轮封锁、经济再度衰退、外国直接投资锐减以及第三轮疫情风险令欧洲新兴地区2021年经济复苏前景恶化。裕利安宜预计，2020年欧洲新兴地区GDP将下降5%，2021年将回升2.8%。 　　（外脑精华·北京）4季度再次陷入衰退 　　3季度欧洲新兴地区经济活动显著回升，但新一轮封锁将使该地区经济在4季度陷入双底衰退。基于该地区9个经济体发布的数据（这9个经济体GDP在欧洲新兴国家GDP总量中的占比为70%）,我们估计欧洲新兴国家的GDP在3季度增长了6.3%，其中斯洛伐克（2季度环比下降8.3%后，在3季度环比增长11.7%）和匈牙利（在2季度环比下降14.6%后，在3季度环比增长11.3%）GDP增幅最高。这是由于5～6月期间该地区大幅放宽封锁措施、供应链恢复正常运转以及遭受重创的汽车业复苏。不过，在第二波新冠疫情强烈爆发背景下，中欧和东欧地区的11个欧盟成员国被迫实施新一轮封锁措施，但封锁的严重程度有所不同。 　　第二轮封锁造成的短期经济损失预计将为该地区在今年3～5月期间蒙受的经济损失的30%～50%。这是由于新一轮封锁措施更富针对性，主要是针对“容受新冠疫情冲击”的服务行业（例如内贸、交通、酒店、餐厅、教育、社会工作、休闲和体育活动），而且一些国家相应缩减了封锁范围，而工业、建筑业和农业将几乎不会受到影响。此外，曾经在今年春节造成该地区工业衰退的亚洲供应链中断目前对该地区的影响有限。不过，我们预计其对欧洲新兴各国影响的差异取决于:受影响的服务行业规模、影响封锁严格程度和时间长短的卫生状况、外贸结构以及目前的经济政策操作空间。 　　因而，我们预计该地区GDP在今年4季度将下降约4.4%，从而使该地区GDP在今年下降5%。我们在今年9月份预测该地区GDP在今年将下降5.4%，我们对该地区GDP降幅预期的上行修正是基于该地区3季度经济增速明显超出预期，3季度增幅在短期内确实足以抵消目前预期的4季度GDP降幅。 　　2021年前景恶化 　　遗憾的是该地区2021年经济复苏前景恶化，这促使我们将我们对2021年欧洲新兴地区经济增速的预期下调1个百分点，至2.8%。促使我们下调对2021年欧洲新兴地区经济增速的预期的首个原因是今年4季度期间的经济下滑将产生负面影响。另一个原因是，在经过4季度的封锁后，经济活动的第二次重启可能将会更具渐进性，因为各国政府将从今夏期间所犯错误中吸取教训，以防被迫进行第三轮封锁和经济第三次陷入衰退。此外，我们注意到该地区今年前8个月的外国直接投资锐减，这不仅将对该地区今年经济增长造成影响，还将影响该地区中期经济前景。此外，由于利率下调至创纪录的低点水平，该地区货币政策几乎操作空间。该地区的一些国家在今年实施了量化宽松政策，但在2021年需谨慎实施量化宽松政策，否则将面临债务难以为继和通胀率攀升的风险，对中期经济增长造成负面影响。 　　在财政刺激方面，该地区各国的境况不一。我们对该地区财政政策操作空间的分析表明，俄罗斯、保加利亚、斯洛伐克和波罗的海三国仍有充足的空间来实施扩张性财政政策。不过，俄罗斯可能将继续推行现行的温和刺激方针，以便在西方继续对其制裁情况下维持其财政储备。为了尽快加入欧元区，保加利亚也有可能在财政政策方面保持谨慎立场。捷克、斯洛文尼亚和罗马尼亚拥有适度的财政政策空间，而匈牙利、克罗地亚、波兰和土耳其2021年财政政策空间较小。 　　我们对该地区2021年经济增速的预测面临的风险偏向下行。供应链有望修复以及亚洲（尤其是中国）生产的产成品可能将出口至中欧和东欧是我们的预测面临的一个微小的上行风险。实际上，鉴于生产渠道的转移通常需要时间，生产渠道在2021年发生大规模转移的可能性很小。我们的预测面临的下行风险远高于上行风险，健康状况发展态势依然充满不确定性将是一个重大风险。如果旨在遏制第二波新冠疫情的本轮封锁的期限超过比预期，或是如果欧洲新兴国家在2021年因遭遇第三波新冠疫情而需要进行第三轮封锁，消费者和投资者信心将遭受重挫。 　　另一个下行风险是政策失误，尤其是就土耳其而言。由于推行超级宽松货币政策的时间过长，土耳其目前已经深陷困境。我们认为，土耳其在上周更换央行行长和财政部长等重要高层的举措不会使得土耳其经济政策发生一次长久性转变。市场目前预期，土耳其央行将在11月19日举行的会议上宣布大幅加息，土耳其央行有可能会宣布加息。但这并非扭转乾坤之举，而且是实际上是我们意料之中的事情。我们预计，一旦货币汇率企稳，通胀压力在几个月内有所减轻，土耳其央行将再度实施宽松货币政策，很可能重蹈因发生严重货币危机而于2019那年过早实施宽松货币政策的覆辙。经济政策决策的持续失误以及政府继续卷入越来越多的地缘政治冲突事件表明土耳其金融市场仍将动荡不安，进而对土耳其实体经济造成负面影响并构成下行风险。 　　就中期而言，欧盟2021～2027年度预算案的附加条款，以及欧洲议会和欧盟各国政府谈判代表在上周签署的创建“复苏与韧性基金”协议为波兰和匈牙利的政策失误提供了空间。目前需要获得所有欧盟成员国和欧洲议会批准的创建“复苏与韧性基金”协议将会引发紧张态势，因为签署各国需遵从欧盟法规才能从该基金获得救助资金，而波兰和匈牙利强烈反对这一条款，因为是因破坏法庭和媒体的独立性而遭受欧盟审查。这两个国家已经发出威胁，声称将否决欧盟预算案。此举将使所有欧盟成员国无法获得所需资金，进而导致所有中东欧国家的经济前景恶化，将继续成为欧盟财政支持的净受益者的匈牙利和波兰的经济前景也将因而恶化。 　　鉴于欧盟似乎很难规避这种否决举动，欧盟可能会放宽其严苛的附加条款，以便达成一项妥协，从而使预算案获得通过。不过，存在的一个尾部风险是欧洲议会不会彻底妥协，进而迫使波兰和匈牙利不得不接受附带若是违反欧盟法规或许将削减救助资金这一条款的折中方案。如果发生这一小概率事件，这将被视为波兰和匈牙利所犯的一个政策错误，造成两国未来经济增长前景恶化，但这主要是在2021年以后，因为预计欧盟资金不会在2021年下半年之前进行划拨。 　　英文原文： Emerging Europe: The balance of risks is tilted to the downside 　　Economic activity in the Emerging Europe region rebounded markedly in Q3 2020, but new lockdowns will send the region into a double-dip recession in Q4. Based on data available for nine economies that account for 70% of regional GDP, we estimate Q3 output to have expanded by +6.3% q/q, with the strongest increases seen in Slovakia (+11.7% q/q, after -8.3% in Q2) and Hungary (+11.3% after -14.6% in Q2). This follows the substantial easing of lockdowns in May-June, as well as the restoring of supply chains and a recovery in the battered automotive sector. However, amid a very strong second wave of Covid-19, the 11 EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-EU-11) have been forced to implement new lockdowns, albeit at varying stringency levels. 　　The short-term economic cost of these second lockdowns is expected to represent 30-50% of the economic impact that the region experienced in March-May. This is because the new measures are more targeted, mostly towards “Covid-19-vulnerable” services sectors (for example domestic trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, education, social work, leisure and sports activities) and less restrictive in some countries, while industrial sectors, construction and agriculture will hardly be impacted this time. Moreover, supply-chain disruptions from Asia, which had added to the industrial recession seen in the spring, will be very limited now. However, we expect differences across countries based on (i) the size of the affected services sectors ; (ii) the sanitary situation, which influences the stringency and length of the lockdowns ; (iii) the external trade structure and (iv) the immediate economic policy leeway. 　　As a result, we forecast the regional GDP to shrink by approximately -4.4% q/q in Q4, taking the full-year 2020 decline to -5.0%. This upward revison from our -5.4% forecast in September is explained by the significantly better-than-expected growth in Q3, which does in the short term more than offset the now expected contraction in Q4. 　　The bad news is that the outlook for the recovery in 2021 has worsened, resulting in a downward revision of our full-year growth forecast by -1pp to +2.8% for the Emerging Europe region as a whole. The first reason is the negative carry-over from the contraction in Q4 2020. Another reason is that the second reopening after the Q4 lockdowns is likely to be more gradual as governments will aim to learn from the mistakes of summer 2020 in order to avoid a third lockdown and a triple-dip recession. Moreover, we have noticed a sharp decline in FDI inflows into the region in the first eight months of 2020, which will not only affect growth in 2020 but also medium-term perspectives. Furthermore, monetary policy leeway is largely exhausted in the region, with interest rates being at record lows. Some countries engaged in Quantitative Easing-style policies in 2020 but this should be continued very cautiously in 2021 as this path will otherwise increase debt sustainability and inflationary risks, with adverse effects for medium-term growth. 　　Regarding fiscal stimulus, the perspectives are diverging across the region. Our Fiscal Leeway Score indicates that Russia, Bulgaria, Slovakia and the three Baltic states still have significant leeway for expansionary fiscal policies. However, Russia is likely to continue its current path of moderate stimulus as it aims to sustain its fiscal reserves against the backdrop of ongoing Western sanctions. Bulgaria is also likely to remain conservative in terms of fiscal policy as it aims to adopt the euro as soon as possible. Moderate fiscal policy leeway is given in Czechia, Slovenia and Romania, while Hungary, Croatia, Poland and Turkey have less room for fiscal maneuver in 2021. 　　The balance of risks to our 2021 forecasts is tilted to the downside. The potential reshoring of supply chains as well as the production of final goods from Asia (notably China) to Central and Eastern Europe is a small upside risk. Indeed, the likelihood of it happening on a large scale in 2021 is low as the relocation of production channels usually takes time. The downside risks are much larger, with continued uncertainty over the development of the health situation being a key one. Should the current lockdowns last longer than expected to flatten the second wave or should a third wave of Covid-19 cases occur in Emerging Europe in 2021, requiring a third lockdown, then consumer and investor confidence would take a hit. 　　Another downside risk is policy mistakes, especially in Turkey. The country is currently already suffering because it has kept monetary policy too loose for too long. We do not expect that last week’s replacements of the important posts of central bank governor and finance minister will result in a lasting reversal of economic policies. Markets are currently pricing in a significant interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) at its scheduled meeting on 19 November, which is likely to come through. However, this will not be a game-changer and is actually included in our scenario. We expect that as soon as the TRY exchange rate has stabilized and inflationary pressures have moderated for a few months, the CBT would return to a monetary easing cycle, most likely too early, as it did in 2019 after the previous severe currency crisis. Continued economic policy mistakes combined with the government’s ongoing involvement in a growing number of geopolitical conflicts suggest that financial market turbulence will remain on the agenda, including negative repercussions and downside risks for the real economy. 　　Over the medium-term, the conditionality of the EU 2021-2027 budget and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which was agreed last week by negotiators from the European Parliament and EU governments, provides room for policy mistakes in Poland and Hungary. The deal, which now needs to be formally approved by all EU governments and the European Parliament, will cause tension because it links access to EU funds to the respect for the rule of law – a condition that Poland and Hungary strongly oppose because they are under EU scrutiny for undermining the independence of courts and media. Both countries have already threatened to veto the EU budget. Such a veto would derail money for all EU member states, which would dampen the economic outlook for all of the CEE-EU-11 region, including Hungary and Poland themselves, both of which would continue to be net beneficiaries of EU financial support. Since it appears to be difficult for the EU to circumvent such a veto, it is likely to back down on the severity of the conditionality to allow for a compromise and get the budget deal through. However, there is a tail risk that the European Parliament will not completely give in, forcing Poland and Hungary into a compromise solution that may reduce the funding for them as long as they do not comply with EU laws. Should this relatively unlikely event occur, it would be considered as a policy mistake by the two countries that would reduce their future potential growth, although mostly beyond 2021 because EU funds are not expected to flow before H2 2021. 来源：裕利安宜，作者：Manfred Stamer \t