经济学人：拜登面临新时代的两大经济挑战

经济学人：拜登面临新时代的两大经济挑战(2020.11.26) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：经济状况很有可能定义拜登的总统生涯。一方面，在疫苗大范围应用之前，疫情引发的危机有可能重创美国经济。另一方面，美国经济处于几十年一遇的转变之中，科技正日益融入日常生活和更多行业，而疫情加快了即将决定20年代商业与投资环境的数字化进程。拜登总统生涯的成败将取决于他如何应对这两大挑战。他必须遵循这一原则：政府不能抗拒经济变革，而应帮助人们适应变革。 　　（外脑精华·北京）美国选民选择拜登，并不是因为他们将其视为治理经济的最佳人选；但经济状况却很有可能定义拜登的总统生涯。一方面，在疫苗大范围应用之前，疫情引发的危机有可能重创美国经济。另一方面，美国经济处于几十年一遇的转变之中，科技正日益融入日常生活和更多行业－－而疫情加快也掩盖了这场转变。拜登总统生涯的成败将取决于他如何应对这两大挑战。 　　延续经济刺激 　　好消息在于，美国GDP已经从春季的暴跌中强势反弹。失业率由4月份的14.7%降至10月份的6.9%，下降速度之快超出大多数预测。如果私人部门就业保持9、10月份的增长速度，那么一年内就能回归疫情爆发前的水平。多数预测显示，2020年美国经济的跌幅将是主要富国之中最小的，如欧元区的经济跌幅将两倍于美国。到目前为止，疫情并未造成危机之初人们担心的那种严重经济损失。 　　然而，美国当前的经济反弹却面临冬季疫情的威胁。在疫苗大规模分发之前，疫情还将进一步恶化。目前美国的新冠肺炎患者住院人数已经超过了春季的峰值。部分地区可能即将面临更多限制和封锁措施。其他地区可能尝试对疫情放任自流－－但如果人们为了安全而留在家中，那么这种做法就可能导致消费支出大跌。 　　如果美国经济再次因疫情而陷入困境，那么美国政府或许难以再次像3月份那样慷慨解囊支持经济。参议院共和党人有可能支持规模有限的第二轮财政刺激措施，却无意接受再一次大规模刺激。美联储是否应将其应急贷款计划延长至新一年的问题引发了激烈争论。财政状况遭受疫情打击的州政府和地方政府的裁员已经对就业市场构成压力。它们联邦政府的救助，而共和党却不愿提供帮助。拜登面临的第一项挑战是劝说国会在经济完全重启之前继续提供大规模援助。 　　顺应科技变革 　　另一方面，疫苗分发之后的美国经济面貌将与疫情爆发前大不相同。新冠危机加快了即将决定20年代商业与投资环境的数字化进程。即使疫情退去，这一趋势也不会完全发生逆转。投资者需要理解无形资产取代有形资产新经济形态，网络效应将使现有企业的支配力更强、利润更加持久。 　　随着新技术的扩散，投资性质正在发生变化。2007～2009年全球金融危机过后，知识产权投资在私人非住宅投资中的占比达到了30%，而且不久有望达到40%大官。这种情况下，沃尔玛必须成为电商巨头，福特必须与特斯拉在电动车市场上竞争，配置资本必须使用电脑。甚至麦当劳都已在制定数字策略。这一轮科技革命对经济的改变将不亚于上世纪90年代全球化对克林顿时期美国经济的影响。 　　美国的疫情可能会在2021年之内退去。科技变革浪潮将延续到拜登任期之后。但他必须遵循这一原则：政府不能抗拒经济变革，而应帮助人们适应变革。美国经济表现优于欧洲的原因之一就在于，其刺激措施注重增加居民收入，而非保留冗余工作岗位。同理，以改造社会安全网和改写社会契约的方式顺应新时代、应对技术变革的政府，表现也将优于力图保留过时的资本主义和治理模式的政府。 　　英文原文： The economy Biden inherits 　　The incoming administration faces two extraordinary economic challenges. AMERICA’S VOTERS did not elect Joe Biden because they thought he would be the best steward of the economy. The economy may well define his presidency nonetheless. Mr Biden will take office in January amid a crisis brought about by the pandemic, which is capable of causing immensely more economic harm before vaccination is widespread. He will also inherit a business landscape in the throes of a once-in-a-generation shift, as technology becomes more embedded in everyday life and in more industries—a shift that has been simultaneously hastened and overshadowed by the disease. Whether Mr Biden succeeds or fails depends on how he manages these twin sources of change. 　　The good news is that GDP has rebounded impressively from its collapse in the spring. The unemployment rate has dropped much faster than most forecasters expected, from 14.7% in April to 6.9% in October. Were private-sector employment to keep growing at the pace of September and October it would return to its pre-pandemic level in less than a year. On most forecasts America’s economy will shrink by less than any other big rich country’s in 2020—the euro zone will take almost twice the hit, for example. So far there is little sign of the economic scarring that was feared at the onset of the crisis (see article). 　　Unfortunately this rebound is threatened by the winter wave of the virus. The logistics of rolling out a vaccine are daunting and at first only emergency workers and the most vulnerable will receive it. The spread of the disease will worsen before a mass inoculation can take place. Already more Americans are in hospital with covid-19 than at the peak of the outbreak in the spring, though many fewer are dying. Some parts of the country could soon face more restrictions and lockdowns. Others might experiment with letting the virus rip—an approach which could still bring about a sharp drop in consumer spending if people choose to stay at home in order to stay safe. 　　If the virus again puts the economy to the sword, it might not benefit from the life support it got in March in the form of lavish unemployment insurance and emergency loans for small businesses. Republicans in the Senate will probably support a limited second round of fiscal stimulus, but are in no mood for another blowout. A debate is raging about whether the Federal Reserve should extend its emergency lending into the new year. Job cuts by state and local governments, whose budgets have been hit by the pandemic, are already weighing down the labour market. They need a bail-out that Republicans do not want to give. Mr Biden’s first challenge will be to persuade Congress to keep the purse strings loose until the vaccine has brought about a full reopening. 　　At the same time the new president will need to grapple with the post-vaccine economy, which will look different from the one that entered the pandemic. The crisis has hastened the digitisation that was already poised to define business and investing in the 2020s. That trend will not fully reverse, even after the pandemic has subsided. Investors are still struggling to make sense of an economy in which intangible capital replaces the bricks-and-mortar kind, and in which network effects make incumbents more dominant and profits more enduring. 　　As technology permeates business, the nature of investment is changing. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the share of private non-residential investment flowing to intellectual property hit 30%. Soon it may breach the 40% threshold (see article). In this world, Walmart must become an e-commerce giant, Ford must compete with Tesla to make electric cars, and computers must allocate capital. Even McDonald’s has been working on its digital strategy (see article). The tech revolution will change the economy as much as the globalisation wave that defined Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s. As it reshapes the labour market—blue- and white-collar jobs alike—it could tear at the social fabric, much as the automation of manufacturing jobs did. 　　America’s epidemic could be fading by the end of 2021. The tech surge will outlive Mr Biden’s presidency. Yet the same principle should guide him on both: that government must not resist economic change, but should instead help people adapt to it. One reason America’s economy is outperforming Europe’s is that its stimulus has done more to prop up household incomes than it has to preserve redundant jobs. Similarly, governments that respond to technological change by remaking safety-nets and rewriting social contracts for the new era will do better than those which seek to preserve obsolete models of capitalism and government. 来源：经济学人 \t