国际谷物理事会：4月份全球粮食市场报告

国际谷物理事会：4月份全球粮食市场报告(2020.05.21) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：2020/2021年度全球粮食（小麦和粗粮）产量预期值下调500万吨，至22.18亿吨；消费量下调400万吨，至22.22亿吨；期末库存上调1200万吨，至6.17亿吨；国际贸易量下调100万吨，至3.84亿吨。4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数环比下跌3%，主要是由于玉米日交价格指数大跌。 　　（外脑精华·北京） 表1：全球粮食市场最新数据 　 2017/2018年度 2018/2019年度 2019/2020年度 2020/2021年度 3月26日预测 4月30日预测 小麦和粗粮 　 　 产量 21.39 21.39 21.76 22.23 22.18 国际贸易量 3.70 3.64 3.81 3.85 3.84 消费量 21.51 21.64 21.81 22.26 22.22 库存量 6.50 6.25 6.20 6.05 6.17 库存年度变化量 -0.12 -0.25 -0.05 -0.04 出口国/地区库存量 1.79 1.64 1.6 1.68 1.74 小麦 　 　 产量 7.62 7.32 7.62 7.68 7.64 国际贸易量 1.76 1.68 1.78 1.80 1.77 消费量 7.39 7.38 7.48 7.60 7.55 库存量 2.71 2.65 2.79 2.83 2.89 库存年度变化量 0.22 -0.06 0.14 0.09 出口国/地区库存量 0.83 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.64 玉米 　 　 产量 10.92 11.29 11.19 11.57 11.58 国际贸易量 1.53 1.65 1.69 1.70 1.73 消费量 11.19 11.47 11.45 11.73 11.73 库存量 3.41 3.23 2.97 2.74 2.81 库存年度变化量 -0.27 -0.18 -0.27 -0.16 出口国/地区库存量 0.74 0.67 0.65 0.74 0.78 大豆 　 　 产量 3.44 3.62 3.38 3.66 3.64 国际贸易量 1.53 1.52 1.52 1.57 1.57 消费量 3.47 3.51 3.56 3.65 3.63 库存量 0.44 0.55 0.38 0.40 0.40 库存年度变化量 -0.03 0.11 -0.17 -0.02 出口国库存量 0.16 0.31 0.18 0.16 0.17 大米 　 　 产量 4.94 5.00 4.98 5.09 5.07 国际贸易量 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.44 消费量 4.86 4.90 4.95 5.01 5.02 库存量 1.63 1.73 1.76 1.85 1.81 库存年度变化量 0.08 0.10 0.03 0.05 出口国库存量 0.31 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.45 　　注：1、小麦和粗粮出口国/地区指：阿根廷、澳大利亚、加拿大、欧盟、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国。2、小麦出口国/地区指：阿根廷、澳大利亚、加拿大、欧盟、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国。3、粗粮出口国/地区指：阿根廷、巴西、乌克兰和美国。4、大米出口国/地区指：印度、巴基斯坦、泰国、美国和越南。5、大豆出口国/地区指：阿根廷、巴西和美国。 　　市场摘要 　　基于玉米产量数据调增量超过了小麦产量数据调减量，2019/2020年度全球粮食（小麦和粗粮）产量预测数据上调100万吨至21.76亿吨，同比增长2%。2019/2020年度全球粮食消费量预测数据下调1100万吨，其中工业用粮食消费量数据调减量最大，主要是基于乙醇加工行业用粮需求大幅放缓。2019/2020年度全球粮食期末库存数据上调1200万吨，同比略降。基于小麦和高粱出口预测数据上调，2019/2020年度全球粮食贸易量预测数据上调。 　　基于生产条件恶化造成欧洲和黑海地区的粮食产量前景恶化，2020/2021年度全球粮食产量预测数据下调500万吨至22.18亿吨。2020/2021年度全球粮食消费量数据下调400万吨，其中工业用粮数据再度下调，但预计所有行业的需求将同比大幅增长。2020/2021年度全球粮食期末库存数据上调1200万吨，同比略降。2020/2021年度全球粮食贸易量预测数据下调，主要是基于饲用小麦贸易量数据下调。 　　基于南美大豆产量数据进一步下调，2019/2020年度全球大豆产量预测数据下调300万吨至3.38亿吨，同比下降2400万吨。基于全球大豆供应量数据调减量与消费量数据调减量相抵，2019/2020年度全球大豆期末库存预测数据维持在3800万吨的不变水平，同比下降近1/3。2020/2021年度全球大豆供需预测数据微调，大豆期末库存维持在4000万吨的低于均值的水平。预计全球大豆全球进口需求预测将同比增长500万吨至创纪录的1.57亿吨，同比增长3%。 　　基于产量数据小幅下降，2019/2020年度全球大米期末库存数据下调至1.76亿吨，但仍处于创历史新高水平。基于大米价格坚挺、出口受限以及运输不畅，2020年全球大米贸易量预测数据下调至约4300万吨，同比持平。2020/2021年度全球大米产量预测数据下调，而全球大米消费量数据小幅上调，全球大米库存数据下调400万吨至1.81亿吨，同比增长500万吨，并创下历史新高。2020/2021年度全球大米贸易量预测数据小幅下调，但仍同比增长4%。 　　4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数环比下跌3%，主要是由于玉米日交价格指数大跌。大跌、小麦和大麦日交价格指数也出现下跌，但大米日交价格指数略涨。 　　供求态势 　　鉴于小麦和大麦增产量将超过玉米减产量，预计2019/2020年度全球粮食产量（小麦和粗粮）将同比增长2%至21.76亿吨。新冠疫情造成的供应中断对需求造成负面影响，尤其是对工业加工需求，而且预计全球粮食消费量仅将略增。鉴于玉米库存降幅将超过小麦和大麦库存增幅，预计全球粮食期末库存将略降。预计全球粮食贸易将创下历史新高，其中全球小麦和玉米贸易量将双双创下历史新高。 　　预计2020/2021年度全球粮食产量将同比增长4300万吨至22.18亿吨，其中玉米增产量最大（同比增长3900万吨），而且预计全球玉米和小麦产量均将创下历史新高。预计2020/2021年度全球粮食消费量将激增至创纪录的22.22亿吨（同比增长4100万吨），其中食用、饲用和工业用粮食的消费量将分别增长1000万吨、1400万吨和1700万吨。预计2020/2021年度全球粮食贸易量将同比增长1%，其中玉米贸易量将连续第12年保持增长。 　　基于美国大豆减产量将超过其他国家的大豆增产量，预计2019/2020年度全球大豆产量将同比下降7%。鉴于全球大豆消费量将略增，预计全球大豆库存将锐减，主要是由于美国大豆库存大幅下降。预计2019/2020年度全球大豆贸易量将持稳于1.57亿吨。鉴于预计大豆价格上涨的美国大豆种植面积将回升，预计2020/2021年度全球大豆产量将同比增长8%。不过，鉴于期初库存水平低下，预计供应增量将主要用于满足增量需求，因而全球大豆库存将处于4000万吨的低于均值的水平。预计中国进口量的增长将推动2020/2021年度全球大豆贸易量同比增长3%至创纪录的水平。 　　虽然印度大米产量将创纪录，但预计其他国家大米减产将导致2019/2020年度全球大米产量同比略降，但仍高于均值。预计人口增长将推动全球大米消费量创下历史新高，但消费模式可能将被当前的新冠疫情所改变。鉴于需求下降以及一些大米出口国限制大米出口，预计2020年全球大米贸易量将持稳于4300万吨，同比基本持平。预计2020/2021年度全球大米产量将同比增长，印度和中国大米库存的增长将推动全球大米库存创下历史新高。预计非洲大米进口量的增长将有望推动2021年全球大米贸易量同比增长4%。 　　价格动向 　　由于玉米、大豆和小麦出口价格的跌幅超过了大米出口价格的涨幅，4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数环比下跌3%。 　　由于北美小麦价格下跌，4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数中的小麦日交价格指数环比下跌2%。欧洲部分地区和黑海地区2020/2021年度小麦生长条件的恶化对小麦价格构成了一定的支撑。 　　由于美国乙醇加工行业需求下降以及南美玉米供应量出现季节性增长，4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数中玉米日交价格指数环比下跌12%。 　　由于越南等一些大米出口国限制大米的出口，4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数中的大米日交价格指数环上涨9%，创下2013年6月以来的最高水平。 　　4月份国际谷物理事会粮食和油籽日交价格指数中的大豆日交价格指数环比下跌4%。除巴西大豆因汇率走势而下跌外，美国大豆价格因需求下降以及对新冠疫情的担忧加剧而下跌。 　　英文原文：Grain Market Report 　　HIGHLIGHTS 　　With a cut for wheat more than offset by a larger figure for maize, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is 1m t higher m/m (month-on-month) at 2,176m, up by 2% y/y (year-on-year). The forecast for consumption is down by 11m t m/m, with the biggest reduction for industrial usage, led by a sharp slowdown in demand for ethanol processing. Having been raised by 12m t m/m, only a modest y/y decline in world stocks is now envisaged. The outlook for trade is increased on stronger than expected shipments of wheat and sorghum. 　　The projection for total grains production in 2020/21 is reduced by 5m t m/m, to 2,218m, as less than ideal conditions are harming crop prospects in Europe and the Black Sea region. Consumption is placed 4m t lower m/m, including another reduction for industrial use; nonetheless, all sectors of demand are seen showing strong y/y growth. The global stocks projection is boosted by 12m t m/m and only a slight y/y contraction in total grains carryovers is expected. Mainly due to reduced prospects for feed wheat shipments, the projection for grains trade is trimmed m/m. 　　Further downgrades for South American producers lower the 2019/20 global soyabean output forecast by 3m t, to 338m, down by 24m y/y. With the net reduction in supplies matched by a cut to total use, world end-season stocks are predicted unchanged m/m, at 38m t, a contraction of almost one-third y/y. Modest adjustments to the Council’s projections for supply and demand in 2020/21 leave carryovers steady m/m, at a below-average 40m t. Global import demand is predicted to advance by 5m t y/y, to an all-time peak of 157m, up 3% y/y. 　　Reflecting a marginal production cut, 2019/20 aggregate rice carryovers are trimmed to 176m t, but would still be the most on record. Against the backdrop of firm prices, export restrictions and logistical constraints, the outlook for trade in 2020 is reduced m/m, to about 43m t, steady y/y. The Council’s projection for output in 2020/21 is lowered and, with a slight upward revision to total use, inventories are cut by 4m t, to 181m, up by 5m y/y and a new peak. Expectations for trade in 2021 have been scaled back slightly, but volumes are still seen growing by 4% y/y. 　　The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by 3% m/m, led by a heavy decline for maize. The soyabean, wheat and barley sub-Indices were also lower, but rice saw a solid gain. 　　OVERVIEW 　　World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is estimated to have climbed by 2% y/y, to 2,176m t, as a fall in maize output was outweighed by larger wheat and barley harvests. Disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively impacted demand, particularly for industrial processing, and grains consumption is expected to be only modestly higher y/y. A relatively small fall in carryover stocks is anticipated, as a drawdown of maize inventories is partly balanced by build-ups of wheat and barley. Trade is expected to be a new peak, including record volumes of wheat and maize. 　　At 2,218m t, global total grains production in 2020/21 is projected to rise by 43m y/y, with the biggest increase for maize (+39m); outturns of both maize and wheat are seen at a record level. Consumption is forecast to show a strong gain, to a new all-time high of 2,222m t (+41m y/y), including increases for food (+10m), feed (+14m) and industrial uses (+17m). World grains stocks are expected to edge lower, as contractions for maize and barley are only partly offset by larger wheat inventories. Trade (Jul/Jun) is predicted to rise by 1% y/y, with shipments of maize seen expanding for the twelfth successive year. 　　With a heavily reduced US harvest outweighing bigger crops elsewhere, world soyabean output in 2019/20 is seen dropping by 7% y/y. As consumption edges up, inventories are expected to plunge, centred on a significantly tighter US carryout. Trade is forecast steady y/y, at 152m t. Tied to an assumed rebound in acreage in the US, where prices have moved in favour of soyabeans, global output could rebound by 8% y/y in 2020/21. Nevertheless, due to low carry-ins, a y/y increase in supplies is largely absorbed by expanded consumption, leaving inventories at a below-average 40m t. Tied to larger sales to China, global trade could expand by 3% y/y, to a new high. 　　Despite record production in India, smaller harvests elsewhere could see 2019/20 global rice output edge lower y/y, yet remain above average. Population growth is expected to underpin record use, although consumption patterns could be altered by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting subdued demand, together with restrictions in some exporters, trade in 2020 is predicted to be little-changed y/y, at around 43m t. Production is projected to increase in 2020/21, with stocks advancing to a new peak on gains in India and China. Trade may expand by 4% y/y in 2021 on an assumed upturn in African buying interest. 　　MARKET SUMMARY 　　With net falls in maize, soyabean and wheat export prices only partly tempered by strong gains in rice, the IGC GOI finished 3% lower compared to the March GMR. 　　Driven by losses in North America, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index dropped by 2% m/m. Some price support stemmed from less than ideal conditions for 2020/21 crops in parts of Europe and the Black Sea region. 　　The IGC GOI maize sub-Index tumbled by 12%, on sagging demand from US ethanol processors and a seasonal increase in South American supplies. 　　Underpinned by the imposition of export restrictions in some suppliers, including in Vietnam, the IGC GOI rice sub-Index posted a 9% monthly gain, touching its highest since June 2013. 　　The IGC GOI soyabeans sub-Index retreated by a net 4%. In addition to currency-related weakness in Brazil, softer US prices were linked to thin buying interest and broader coronavirus worries. 来源：国际谷物理事会 \t