Markit：英国经济走势将进一步恶化

Markit：英国经济走势将进一步恶化(2020.06.02) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：新冠危机对英国经济活动、劳动力市场和公共财政状况造成重大影响。1季度英国实际GDP环比下滑2%，同比下滑1.6%，分别创下2007～2008年金融危机以来和2009年底以来最大跌幅。继3月份经济遭受重创之后，4、5月间英国经济降幅将进一步扩大。因此，英国有可能成为受新冠危机影响最重的西欧经济体。 　　（外脑精华·北京）新冠危机对英国经济活动、劳动力市场和公共财政状况造成重大影响。我们预计，继3月份经济遭受重创之后，4、5月间英国经济降幅将进一步扩大。因此，英国有可能成为受新冠危机影响最重的西欧经济体。 　　为应对新冠疫情而采取的强制措施造成了巨大的经济损失。英国从3月23日开始实行禁闭，导致学校和大学、酒吧、餐馆和大多数商店关闭，除了食品购物、医疗保健或锻炼活动外，民众需要留在家中。5月和6月期间，许多面向消费者的服务、非必需的零售场所和旅游活动仍将受到控制疫情措施的影响，但一些限制可能会提前解除。 　　第一轮经济冲击 　　在新冠疫情爆发前，英国经济已经处于弱势地位，从2019年底开始基本处于停滞，英国国家统计局（ONS）最近的数据凸显出，由于使用紧急隔离和社会疏远措施应对病毒爆发，英国国内生产总值损失严重。 　　根据官方的初次估算，2020年1季度经济环比萎缩2%，这是自2007～2008年金融危机最严重时期以来的最大跌幅。此外，1季度实际国内生产总值同比下降1.6%，为2009年底以来最大降幅。 　　更令人担忧的是，国家统计局报告称，3月份实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降5.8%，这是自1997年开始记录数据以来，月度数据以来的最大降幅。占英国国内生产总值80%的服务业3月份下降6.2%，创下有史以来最大月度降幅。最弱的行业是批发、零售和汽车贸易、住宿和食品服务以及教育。 　　3月份和1季度的国内生产总值损失都非常引人注目，因为在这段时间内，强制封锁实施仅有7个工作日。国家统计局报告说，交通、餐馆和酒店以及服装和鞋类的支出严重下降。不过，需求有所改善的地方有几个，即食品和饮料、烟酒、电视和视听设备。 　　经济走势将进一步恶化 　　英国IHS采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，英国企业活动出现22年来最大收缩。具体而言，衡量制造业和服务业产出的综合指数4月份下降22.1点，至13.8点，为1998年1月调查开始以来的最低水平。这明显弱于2008年11月金融危机最严重时的38.1。 　　IHS估计，4月份英国综合产出指数的下降与GDP季度降幅“约7%”一致。此外，该调查还警告称，实际GDP损失可能更为严重，因为该指数排除了受新冠疫情相关遏制措施影响最严重的两类，个体工商户和零售业。 　　事实上，国家统计局证实，自3月23日起强制关闭非必需品商店后，3月下旬零售支出面临相当大的压力。3月份，零售额同比下降5.1%，为该系列历史上最大降幅。3月份零售额的报告期为3月1日至4月4日。这意味着，在为期5周的交易期中，有两周受到了采取社会疏远措施遏制新冠疫情传播的影响。 　　IHS预计，随着整个月的停产，4月份零售支出将出现更大幅度的收缩。英国零售财团提供了一份早期评估报告，报告称其成员4月份的总销售额同比下降19.1%，这是自1995年开始月度指数以来的最大降幅。与此同时，巴克莱银行报告称，由于旅游、酒吧和餐馆支出大幅下降，4月份的信用卡和借记卡支出较上年同期下降了36.5%。此外，新车销量连续第四个月萎缩，4月份仅为4321辆，同比下降97.3%。 　　由于面向消费者的服务和非必需零售场所将在整个5月份和6月份关闭，近期前景也显得黯淡：5月10日，英国首相鲍里斯约翰逊宣布了一项新的三阶段计划，在解决新冠疫情流行的措施关闭部分经济后，将重返工作岗位。这包括分阶段重新开放商店，并计划鼓励一些小学生重返校园，但不能在6月1日之前。还有一个目标是重新开放部分酒店业和其他公共场所，“前提是它们遵守社会距离规则”，但这不会在7月1日之前发生。 　　经济前景暗淡 　　英国最具经济影响力的封锁措施将在5月和6月保持不变，这意味着2季度国内生产总值将出现更大幅度的收缩，可能接近20%。 　　根据我们4月份的预测，我们预计2020年经济将收缩4.3%，但在宣布谨慎的退出战略和3月份的GDP损失之后，这一点太乐观。我们打算在5月15日公布的5月份最新数据中公布一份明显悲观的2020年评估报告，我们现在预计2020年的GDP收缩率将在12.0%左右。 　　分阶段退出封闭措施的战略将在2020年下半年和2021年实现新的增长。重要的是，我们预计从2020年3季度起，酒店和餐饮业、旅游和交通部门以及娱乐、文化和个人服务的限制将减少。这将有助于重新启动服务业和非食品零售业的支出，但低于危机前的水平。 　　但“V型”复苏的前景充满挑战，这意味着可能需要数年时间才能挽回GDP损失。这反映了以下情况： 　　－－关于新冠疫情在2020年下半年将如何表现的一些不确定性。感染率可能再次上升，使政府别无选择，只能重新实施限制。 　　－－可持续地恢复经济正常状态，可能需要疫苗的出现。 　　－－财政压力增加，主要财政指标严重恶化。 　　－－由于新冠疫情造成的失业和更高的失业率，将打压消费者信心和支出决策的复苏。工作和养老金部报告说，自3月初以来，尽管实行了工作保留计划，但仍有近200万人通过普遍信贷系统提出了新的福利要求。失业率将明显上升，2020年年中失业率可能从2019年底的3.8%升至9.0%左右。 　　－－因此，预计到2020年，每周平均收入将下降，反映出被解雇工人的工资水平下降，这意味着危机后家庭需要重建收入和财富水平。 　　－－此外，目前英欧贸易谈判的不确定结果也受到风险关注。贸易谈判进展不顺利，英国政府继续坚持不延长有限的过渡期。监管一致性问题以及如何实现这一目标仍然是一个重大障碍。我们的基准线仍然假定2021年初达成某种形式的“赤裸裸”的货物贸易协定，但边境的一些摩擦将不可避免。假设护照终止，意味着英国对欧盟的金融服务出口受到打击。 　　英文原文： UK and COVID-19: the state of play 　　The COVID-19 crisis has left a large footprint on UK economic activity, the labour market and the state of its public finances. Given the acute GDP losses in March, we now anticipate even sharper falls in April and May, suggesting that the United Kingdom is set to be the most affected economy in Western Europe by the COVID-19 crisis. 　　The enforced anti-contagion measures to tackle the outbreak of the virus are resulting in significant economic costs. The lockdown has been in place in the UK since 23rd March, resulting in the closure of schools and universities, pubs, restaurants, and most shops, while the population stays at home except for food shopping, healthcare or exercise. Many consumer facing services, non-essential retail premises and tourist activities will remain affected by the anti-contagion measures during May and June, but some of the trading restrictions could be eased earlier. 　　The economy takes its first hit 　　The UK economy was already in a weak position prior to the COVID-19 crisis, broadly stagnating from late-2019, and recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) data highlight how severe GDP losses have arisen because of the use of emergency quarantine and social distancing measures to tackle the virus outbreak. 　　According to its first estimate, the economy shrank by 2% quarter on quarter (q/q) in the first quarter of 2020, the sharpest decline since the height of the 2007–08 financial crisis. In addition, real GDP contracted by 1.6% year on year in the first quarter, the biggest fall since the end of 2009. 　　More worryingly, the ONS reports that real GDP fell by 5.8% month on month (m/m) in March, the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997. The services sector, which accounts for 80% of UK GDP, fell by 6.2% m/m in March, the largest monthly fall on record. The weakest sectors were wholesale, retail, and motor trades, accommodation and food services, and education. 　　The GDP losses in both March and the first quarter were eye-catching given the enforced lockdown was in place for just seven working days during the period (albeit with voluntary distancing measures having been widely adopted earlier in the month). The ONS reported severe falls in spending on transport, restaurants and hotels, and clothing and footwear. However, there were pockets of improved demand, namely for food and drink alcohol and tobacco and televisions and audio-visual equipment. 　　Recent survey data point to the economy enduring a torrid April 　　The IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the UK signalled the largest contraction in business activity in the survey’s 22-year history. Specifically, the composite index measuring output across the manufacturing and services sectors dropped by 22.1 points to 13.8 in April, the lowest level since the survey began in January 1998. This was notably weaker than the prior low of 38.1, seen in November 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. 　　IHS Markit estimates that the fall in the UK composite output index during April is consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of “approximately 7%”. In addition, the survey warns that the actual GDP losses could be even more severe because the index excludes most of the self-employed and the retail sector, the two groups worst affected by the COVID-19 virus-related containment measures. 　　Indeed, the ONS confirms that retail spending was under considerable pressure in the latter stages of March after the enforced closure of non-essential stores from 23rd March. Retail sales (including fuel sales) in volume terms decreased by 5.1% m/m in March, which was the largest fall in the series history. 　　The reporting period for measuring retail sales in March was from 1st March to 4th April. This implies that two weeks of the five-week trading period were affected by the introduction of the social-distancing measures to contain the COVID-19 virus outbreak. 　　IHS Markit expects there was an even sharper contraction in retail spending during April, with the shutdown in place for the entire month. The British Retail Consortium has provided an early assessment, reporting that its members endured a 19.1% y/y drop in total sales in April, the biggest fall since it began its monthly index in 1995. Meanwhile, Barclaycard has reported that credit-and debit-card spending in April was 36.5% lower when compared with a year earlier as a result of collapsing spending on travel, pubs, and restaurants. In addition, new car sales shrank for a fourth successive month, declining by 97.3% y/y to just 4,321 in April. 　　The near-term outlook also looks bleak as consumer-facing services and non-essential retail premises will remain closed throughout May, and many in June as well: On 10th May, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new three-stage plan to allow the country to return to work after measures to tackle the COVID-19 virus pandemic closed parts of the economy. This includes a phased reopening of shops and plans to encourage some primary-school pupils to return to school, but not before 1st June. There is also a target to reopen parts of the hospitality industry and other public places, “provided they follow social distancing rules”, but this will not occur before 1st July. 　　The GDP outlook has darkened 　　The UK’s lockdown measures with the greatest economic clout will remain intact during May and June, and this points to an even larger quarterly GDP contraction in the second quarter, probably close to 20%. 　　According to our April forecast, we expect the economy to contract by 4.3% in 2020, but this is far too benign following the announcement of the cautious exit strategy and March’s GDP losses. We intend to publish a markedly gloomier assessment for 2020 in our May update, to be released on 15th May, and we now anticipate the GDP contraction for 2020 to be around 12.0% 　　A phased exit strategy from the anti-contagion measures will deliver renewed growth in the second half of 2020 and in 2021. Importantly, we anticipate decreasing restrictions on the hotel and restaurant industry, in the travel and transport sectors, and in recreational, cultural, and personal services from the third quarter of 2020. This will help to reboot spending on services and non-food retail but at below pre-crisis levels. 　　But the prospects of a “V-shape” recovery are challenging, implying it could take several years to recapture the impending GDP losses. This reflects the following: 　　－Some uncertainty as to how the COVID-19 virus will behave in the second half of 2020. Infections could rise again, leaving the government with no choice but to reintroduce restrictions. 　　－A sustainable return to economic normalcy could require the arrival of a vaccine. 　　－ Increased fiscal stress, highlighted by a severe deterioration in key fiscal metrics. 　　－ Legacy job losses and a higher unemployment rate as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, which will weigh down on the recovery in consumer confidence and spending decisions. The Department for Work and Pensions reports that nearly 2.0 million people have made new benefits claims through the universal credit system since the start of March, despite the Job Retention Scheme (furloughed workers). This will be mirrored by a notably higher unemployment rate, probably around 9.0% in mid-2020 from 3.8% at end-2019. 　　－Average weekly earnings are consequently expected to shrink in 2020, reflecting lower wages for furloughed workers, meaning households will need to rebuild income and wealth levels after the crisis. 　　－ In addition, an uncertain outcome of the current UK-EU trade negotiations is on the risk radar. The trade talks are not going well, and the UK government continues to insist that the limited transition period will not be extended. The issue of regulatory alignment, and how to achieve it, remains a major obstacle. Our baseline still assumes some form of “bare bones” trade agreement for goods in place at the start of 2021, but some friction at the border will be inevitable. The end of passporting is assumed, signifying a blow to UK exports of financial services to the European Union. 来源：Markit，作者：Raj Badiani \t