IMF：继续实施强有力的政策行动对抗持续的不确定性

IMF：继续实施强有力的政策行动对抗持续的不确定性(2020.12.01) .zhubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:18pt;line-height:23pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:800;color:black} .fubiaoti {font-family: 黑体;font-size:14pt;line-height:20pt; text-align:center;FONT-weight:700;color:black} .zhongwen{font-size:12pt;line-height:180%} .yingwen{font-size:13pt;line-height:150%} .tiyao{font-family: 楷体_GB2312;font-size:14pt;line-height:150%} 　　提要：密集接触型服务业的最新数据表明，疫情再次暴发的经济体复苏势头正在放缓。换言之，虽然应对疫情的医学方案即将问世，但未来的经济复苏之路依然艰难且极易遭受挫折。因此，世界各国需要继续实施强有力的政策行动来对抗持续的不确定性。能否取得成功，取决于各国能否迅速行动并联手推进。本文认为有三项重点工作：结束健康危机；加固通往经济复苏的桥梁；以及为更美好的21世纪经济奠定基础。 　　（外脑精华·北京）在二十国集团（G20）领导人本周召开远程会议之际，全球经济正处于一个重要关头。很多国家开始从严重的新冠疫情中复苏。然而，很多经济体暴发新一轮感染，这表明未来的复苏之路非常艰难且充满不确定性。好消息是，疫苗研发取得了重大进展。尽管有很多注意事项，但这增强了战胜疫情的希望－－本次疫情已导致100多万民众丧命，数千万民众失业。 　　而不太好的消息是当前疫情的严峻性及其对经济的不利影响。上个月，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，2020年全球GDP将历史性地收缩4.4%。同时我们预计，明年全球经济将出现局部、不均衡的复苏，增速为5.2%。IMF最新预测发布以来的数据证实，全球经济在持续复苏。很多经济体（包括美国、日本和欧元区）三季度的经济活动实际上强于预期。 　　但正如IMF向G20领导人峰会提交的说明指出，密集接触型服务业的最新数据表明，疫情再次暴发的经济体复苏势头正在放缓。换言之，虽然应对疫情的医学方案即将问世，但未来的经济复苏之路依然艰难且极易遭受挫折。 　　在上行情景中，如果对疫情的控制快于预期或研发出更好的疗法，经济活动将更快恢复正常，从而限制经济创伤效应并提振经济增长。在下行情景中，如果新一轮暴发需要实施更严格的出行限制措施，或者疫苗和疗法的研发、生产和大范围分配被推迟，那么保持社交距离将延续更长时间。因此，经济增速将会放缓，公共债务水平上升，对经济长期潜在增长的创伤效应更严重－－不妨设想长期失业给劳动者人力资本造成的损失。 　　因此，我们需要继续实施强有力的政策行动来对抗持续的不确定性。能否取得成功，取决于我们能否迅速行动并联手推进。我认为有三项重点工作：（1）结束健康危机；（2）加固通往经济复苏的桥梁，以及（3）为更美好的21世纪经济奠定基础。 　　结束健康危机 　　新一轮感染有力地提醒我们，除非所有地方都能战胜疫情，否则任何国家都无法实现可持续的经济复苏。在治疗、检测和接触追踪方面的公共支出比以往任何时候都更为重要。同时，跨境合作也更为重要，这有助于降低疫苗、疗法和检测工具供应不足的风险。这意味着需要在医疗解决方案的制造、采购和分配方面加强多边合作，尤其是在较贫穷的国家。 　　这也意味着，取消近期实施的针对所有医疗产品和服务的贸易限制措施，包括与疫苗相关的限制措施。我们估计，如果广泛共享的医疗解决方案取得更快进展，2025年之前全球收入可以增加近9万亿美元。在贫穷和富裕国家之间不平等现象加剧的背景下，这可能有助于缩小两者之间的收入差距。 　　加固通往经济复苏的桥梁 　　在G20国家的带领下，世界各国已采取空前和同步的措施，为世界经济提供了支撑，这些措施包括规模达12万亿美元的财政行动和央行提供的大规模流动性支持。除了风险最高的借款人，其他借款人面临的融资环境有所放松。 　　考虑到危机的严重性，我们需要在这些措施的基础上继续努力。很多发展中国家仍面临不确定的环境，主要原因是其应对危机的能力更为有限。从全球范围来看，经济和金融领域的不确定性仍然很高。例如，高企的资产估值表明，金融市场和实体经济之间存在脱节，对金融稳定构成内在风险。 　　此外，很大比重的财政政策支持正在逐步退出。很多救助措施已经结束或将于今年年底结束，这些措施包括对家庭提供现金转移支付，就业保留支持和扩大失业福利。同时我们预计，危机仍将导致大规模失业。仅全球旅游业，估计就有多达1.2亿个工作岗位面临风险。因此，我们该如何降低不确定性并加固通往经济复苏的桥梁？ 　　1.避免过早退出政策支持。与当前预算相比，一些经济体明年仍有空间进一步增加财政支持。对于财政空间有限的国家，关键在于重新分配支出，优先重点保护最脆弱的群体。同样重要的是，继续实施宽松的货币政策和流动性措施，确保信贷流动（尤其是流向中小企业），同时实施恰当的金融部门政策作为补充。这有助于支持经济增长，促进就业，并维护金融稳定。 　　2.一旦疫情得到更好控制，立即做好同步推动基础设施投资的准备，以提振经济增长，限制创伤效应，并实现气候目标。在经济极度乏力的国家，这种公共部门投资有助于促进经济实现全面就业，同时提升私人部门生产率。 　　此外，IMF工作人员的一项全新研究显示，G20国家同步开展投资将带来大规模的潜在效益。如果财政空间较大的国家同步采取行动，在2021和2022年将基础设施支出与GDP之比分别提高0.5个和1个百分点，同时财政空间更为有限的经济体按上述比例的1/3进行投资，那么到2025年全球GDP将增长近2%。相比之下，如果投资活动不同步，预计全球GDP增长仅为不到1.2%。 　　换言之，如果各国单独行动，实现相同的增长结果需要多支出2/3的资金。最重要的是，如果携手合作，我们能更有效地推动经济增长，促进就业，同时应对气候变化。 　　为更美好的21世纪经济奠定基础 　　当前，我们面临的最重大不确定性是，如何利用当前的动荡时刻为所有人构建一个更美好的经济。这是上星期各国领导人齐聚 巴黎和平论坛的关注焦点，也将是G20国家领导人的第一要务。 　　我们都意识到，环境可持续性必须成为构建更具韧性和包容性的经济的重要基石。这需要采取一系列强有力的措施，包括绿色投资举措并逐步上调碳价。我们预计，此类一揽子政策将提振全球GDP增长，在未来十年内创造约1200万个新就业岗位，并确保在本世纪中叶前实现零净排放的目标。 　　但有一点很明确：如果要利用绿色经济增长并释放数字经济的全部潜力，我们必须在劳动者从收缩部门向扩张部门的转型过程中为其 提供支持。社会支出非常关键，包括增加对培训、新技能培训和高质量教育的投资。这对于女性和青年人占比较高的中低技能劳动力尤为重要，因为该群体在危机中受到了尤为严重的打击。 　　另一个基石是财政可持续性。本次危机的一个主要遗留问题将是创纪录的全球公共债务。在中期内，应对这一挑战至关重要，措施包括调整税收体系，以平等方式调动税收收入。但对于很多债务负担沉重的低收入国家，国际社会须立即采取紧迫行动，包括提供更多赠款、优惠信贷和债务减免。 　　在此方面，G20一直起着关键的作用。其“暂停偿债倡议”为很多低收入国家抗击疫情提供了暂时的“喘息空间”。在巴黎俱乐部支持下达成一致的全新“共同框架”更进一步：如果完全落实，贫困国家将可以申请永久性债务减免，同时确保所有债权人在相同的公平竞争环境下进行协商。 　　最后，在G20范畴外为世界各国提供支持！多边努力对于帮助最贫困经济体度过危机非常关键。同样关键的是，继续努力加强基于规则的贸易活动，促进所有人公平缴纳税款的国际税收体系，并增强全球金融安全网。若不采取上述措施，不平等问题将会加剧，全球经济将在未来面临更严峻的挑战。 　　IMF已采取空前措施应对本次危机－－包括为82个成员国提供了超过1000亿美元的新融资，并为最贫困的成员国提供了债务减免。我们计划采取进一步行动，帮助190个成员度过当前危机，并在疫情结束后构建更美好的经济。 　　英文原文： Continued Strong Policy Action to Combat Uncertainty 　　As G20 leaders meet virtually this week, the global economy faces a critical juncture. Countries have started to climb back from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis. But the resurgence in infections in many economies shows just how difficult and uncertain this ascent will be. 　　The good news is the significant progress on vaccine development. While there are many caveats, this raises hopes of vanquishing the virus that has taken more than a million lives and caused tens of millions of job losses. 　　The not-so-good news is the severity of the pandemic and its negative economic impact. Last month, the IMF projected a historic global GDP contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020. And we expect a partial and uneven recovery next year, with growth at 5.2 percent. 　　Data since our latest projections confirm the global recovery has continued. For many economies—including the United States, Japan, and the Euro Area—economic activity in the third quarter turned out stronger than expected. 　　But as the IMF’s note to the G20 leaders’ summit points out, the most recent data for contact-intensive service industries point to a slowing momentum in economies where the pandemic is resurging. 　　In other words, while a medical solution to the crisis is now in sight, the economic path ahead remains difficult and prone to setbacks. 　　On the upside, faster-than-expected containment of the virus or the development of better treatments would allow for a quicker return to normal activity, limit economic scarring, and boost growth. 　　On the downside, if new outbreaks require more stringent mobility restrictions, or if the development, production, and widespread distribution of vaccines and treatments is delayed, social distancing will persist for longer. As a result, growth will be lower, public debt higher, and the scars on the long-term potential of the economy more severe—think of how extended job losses can harm the human capital of workers. 　　That is why we need continued strong policy action to combat continued uncertainty. 　　Success here depends on us acting swiftly—and acting together. I see three key priorities: (i) end the health crisis, (ii) reinforce the economic bridge to recovery, and (iii) build the foundations of a better 21st-century economy. 　　First, end the health crisis. 　　The resurgence in infections is a powerful reminder that a sustainable economic recovery cannot be achieved anywhere unless we defeat the pandemic everywhere. Public spending on treatment, testing, and contact tracing is now more important than ever. 　　So, too, is cooperation across borders to lower the risk of an inadequate supply of vaccines, treatments, and tests. This means stepping up multilateral efforts on the manufacturing, purchase, and distribution of these health solutions—especially in poorer nations. It also means removing recent trade restrictions on all medical goods and services, including those related to vaccines. 　　We estimate that faster progress on widely shared medical solutions could add almost $9 trillion to global income by 2025. This would help narrow the income gap between poorer and richer nations at a time when inequality between countries is set to increase. 　　Second, reinforce the economic bridge to recovery. 　　Led by G20 countries, the world has taken unprecedented and synchronized measures that put a floor under the world economy, including $12 trillion in fiscal actions and massive liquidity support from central banks. Financing conditions have eased for all but the riskiest borrowers. 　　Given the gravity of the crisis, we need to build on these measures. Many developing nations continue to face a precarious situation, largely because of their more limited capacity to respond to the crisis. And globally, economic and financial uncertainties remain high. For example, elevated asset valuations point to a disconnect of financial markets from the real economy, with inherent risks to financial stability. 　　Furthermore, much of the fiscal policy support is now gradually waning. Many lifelines such as cash transfers to households, job retention support, and augmented unemployment benefits have expired or are set to expire by the end of this year. This comes at a time when employment losses from the crisis are still projected to be sizable. In the global tourism sector alone, up to 120 million jobs are estimated at risk. 　　So, how can we reduce uncertainty and strengthen the bridge to recovery? 　　1. Avoid premature withdrawal of policy support. In some economies—there is room for further fiscal support next year beyond what is currently budgeted. For countries with limited fiscal space, it will be critical to prioritize and reallocate spending to protect the most vulnerable. Equally important is continued monetary accommodation and liquidity measures to ensure the flow of credit, especially to small and medium-sized firms, complemented by appropriate financial sector policies. This would help support growth, jobs, and financial stability. 　　2. Prepare now for a synchronized infrastructure investment push, once the pandemic comes under better control to invigorate growth, limit scarring, and address climate goals. Where slack remains high, this kind of public sector investment can help move economies toward full employment while strengthening private sector productivity. 　　Moreover, new IMF staff research shows large potential gains when G20 countries invest at the same time. If those with the largest fiscal space were to simultaneously increase infrastructure spending by ? percent of GDP in 2021 and 1 percent of GDP in the following years—and if economies with more constrained fiscal space invested one third of that—they could lift global GDP by close to 2 percent by 2025. This compares with just below 1.2 percent for an unsynchronized approach. 　　In other words, if countries acted alone, it would take about two-thirds more spending to achieve the same outcomes. The bottom line is that we can build the impetus for growth, jobs, and address climate change, far more effectively if we work together. 　　Third, build the foundations of a better 21st-century economy. 　　The most consequential uncertainty facing us today is this: how can we use this moment of disruption to build a better economy for all? This was the focus of world leaders when they gathered at the Paris Peace Forum last week, and it will be top of mind for G20 leaders. 　　We all recognize that environmental sustainability must be a key building block of a more resilient and inclusive economy. It requires a powerful combination of measures, including a green investment push and gradually rising carbon prices. We estimate that this type of policy package could lift global GDP and create about 12 million new jobs over a decade, while putting us on a path towards net zero emissions by mid-century. 　　Yet one thing is clear: if we are to harness green growth and realize the full potential of the digital economy, we must support workers as they transition from shrinking to expanding sectors. Social spending is absolutely crucial, including increased investment in training, re-skilling, and high-quality education. This is particularly important for low- and medium-skilled workers, among whom women and young people are overrepresented. They have been hit especially hard by the crisis. 　　Another building block is fiscal sustainability. Record-high global public debt is one of the key legacies of the crisis. Addressing this challenge over the medium term will be critical, including through a retooling of tax systems to mobilize revenues in an equitable way. But for many low-income countries with heavy debt burdens, urgent action is required now, including access to more grants, concessional credit, and debt relief. 　　Here the G20 has been key. Its debt service suspension initiative has given many low-income countries temporary “breathing space” in their fight against the virus. And the new Common Framework, agreed with support of the Paris Club, goes further: if fully implemented, it will allow poorer nations to apply for permanent debt relief, while ensuring that all creditors negotiate on the same level playing field. 　　Finally, support the world beyond the G20! Multilateral efforts are vital to help the poorest economies through the crisis. So, too, are continued efforts to strengthen rules-based trade, foster an international system of taxation where everyone pays their fair share, and bolster the global financial safety net. Without these, inequality will be exacerbated, and the global economy will face even greater challenges in the period ahead. 　　At the IMF, we have responded to this crisis in an unprecedented manner—including over $100 billion in new financing to 82 countries and debt service relief for our poorest members. We aim to do even more to help our 190 member countries overcome this crisis and build a better post-pandemic economy. 来源：IMF，作者：Kristalina Georgieva \t